Trump's $6 Trillion Investment Deals Face Reality Check: Only A Fraction May Reach The Real Economy

President Donald Trump has touted multi-trillion-dollar investment commitments as proof that his economic strategy is delivering a historic revival of American manufacturing and infrastructure.

Yet, behind the massive figures, new analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests the actual economic impact could be far more modest.

Foreign governments and corporations have pledged over $6 trillion in U.S. investments, including $2 trillion from companies and $4.2 trillion from foreign governments, according to Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs.

Just a week ago, President Trump secured $2 trillion in investment commitments from Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, Japan pledged $1 trillion.

Among the companies making the largest pledges, Nvidia Corp. NVDA announced $787 billion, followed by International Business Machines Corp. IBM with $409 billion, Apple Inc. AAPL with $302 billion, and Eli Lilly & Co. LLY with $35 billion.

"We expect the impact on U.S. investment to be smaller than suggested by these promises for three reasons," Briggs said in a report, highlighting project uncertainty, limited alignment with national accounts definitions, and overlap with prior plans.

The Real Investment Boost May Be Just $30B–$135B

After analyzing the announcements and stripping out less tangible commitments—like purchases of goods, partnerships, and reannounced projects—Goldman estimates that only $135 billion in new annual investment is directly tied to GDP-relevant projects like physical capital expenditures and R&D.

Applying historical realization rates and analyst feedback, the bank sees the likely net impact closer to $30 billion per year, or just 0.1% of U.S. GDP.

That figure starkly contrasts with headline projections that initially suggested a 4% GDP boost over time.

Why The Gap?

Many large-cap companies, including Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp., have promised massive investments—$500 billion each over multiple years—but their past spending doesn't align.

Apple spent just $10 billion on U.S. capex and $31.4 billion on global R&D in 2024. Nvidia's corresponding figures were even lower, suggesting that headline figures may include spending on acquisitions, partnerships or input costs that don't translate into actual U.S. capital formation.

Further, Goldman's equity analysts found that 69% of the corporate investments likely overlap with previously planned spending, with just 6% seen as mostly new.

Goldman Sachs noted that “these announcements have not driven major upgrades to equity analyst capex forecasts.”

Foreign Deals May Help, If They Materialize

“In contrast to company-level announcements, investment promises from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Japan could provide a material incremental increase if they materialize,” Briggs said.

Countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Japan and the UAE have announced ambitious commitments—from AI data centers to energy infrastructure and defense purchases.

Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar emphasized large-scale purchases of U.S. goods—$142 billion in defense contracts from Saudi Arabia and $96 billion in aircraft orders from Qatar—which would support U.S. GDP through exports, but not count as domestic investment.

Yet, the lack of specificity on most other announced projects suggests that much of the foreign capital may contribute indirectly by lowering financing costs rather than driving immediate, measurable increases in U.S. capital formation.

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