NVIDIA Q1 Earnings Preview: Analyst Cautions On Macro Uncertainty, China Restrictions - 'Stay Long The Stock' - NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA)

All eyes turn to NVIDIA Corporation NVDA and the company's AI dominance, new products and questions for the China market when the company reports first-quarter financial results Wednesday after market close.

Here are the analyst earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Nvidia to report first-quarter revenue of $43.54 billion, up from $26.04 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The revenue estimate would be a company record, beating the $39.33 billion reported in the fourth quarter.

Nvidia has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in 10 straight quarters.

Analysts expect Nvidia to report first-quarter earnings per share of 88 cents, up from 61 cents per share in last year's first quarter. The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in nine straight quarters.

What Experts Are Saying: Nvidia stock could be flat to down heading into the earnings report due to macro uncertainty and a ban on the H20 AI chip in China, Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar said in a new investor note ahead of Q1 results.

"The new re-spun China chip will likely be commercialized in the late part of the July quarter, which could also impact July's guide," he said, reiterating an Overweight rating and $150 price target on Nvidia.

Kumar said most of the factors that could hurt Nvidia's first quarter are outside the company's control. The analyst sees a strong back half of the year coming for Nvidia with macro forces improving.

"We advise investors to weather the uncertainty and stay long the stock as this is likely largely the last wave of negative news for NVDA this year."

Freedom Capital Markets Chief Global Strategist Jay Woods said there are three main things investors will be watching and listening for in Nvidia's report.

Woods called Nvidia "the poster child for all that is AI."

Woods said the three things that will be most watched are sales of the Blackwell chip, the export restrictions on China, and guidance.

"Government restrictions have limited Nvidia's ability to export certain AI chips, like the H20, to China, potentially affecting revenue," Woods said in his weekly newsletter.

The market strategist said investors will be looking at Nvidia's guidance to see how the giant can navigate this setback, including potential new, compliant chip variants for the Chinese market.

After a history of raising projections for future earnings, Woods questions if the trend can continue given the growth concerns, global competition, and inflation concerns Nvidia faces.

Here are other recent analyst ratings on Nvidia and their price targets:

Wedbush: Reiterated Outperform rating, $175 price target
Bank of America: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $150 to $160
UBS: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $180 to $175

Key Items to Watch: Nvidia has shown huge year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter growth in recent years. With another record quarter predicted by analysts, guidance will become increasingly important.

The company posted a 12% quarter-over-quarter sales increase in the fourth quarter, with sales up 78% year-over-year. Given the tougher comps, triple-digit growth is likely gone, and eventually, this growth forecast could continue to fall.

Data Center segment revenue hit another record in the fourth quarter, with $35.6 billion, up 93% year over year.

The fourth quarter saw Data Center carry the company with Gaming & AI PC segment revenue down 11% year-over-year and Professional Visualization revenue up 10% year-over-year. The company's automotive segment saw strong overall year-over-year growth of 103% in the quarter, but it was the smallest segment by revenue ($570 million).

Another area to watch could be any talk about competition. Chip competitor AMD recently unveiled the Radeon RX 9060 XT and Radeon AI Pro R9700 graphics cards. The new graphics cards will bring AI capabilities to workstations and gamers worldwide and increase AMD's competition with Nvidia.

Tech reviewer Tom’s Guide said the RX 9060 XT's release is a “direct shot” at Nvidia’s RTX 5060. The reviewer believes AMD’s product could “hit the bullseye” in the competitive race.

While Nvidia likely won't comment on the competition, it could provide keywords and highlight how its products are the best on the market.

Another area to watch with Nvidia's stock report will be if other peer companies go higher or lower on the news. Nvidia's post-earnings move will also have a large impact on several of the most-watched stock market indexes and ETFs.

Nvidia is the second-largest holding of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, with a 6.5% weighting. A sharp decline in Nvidia's stock price due to guidance could send the overall S&P 500 and ETFs lower on the week.

Nvidia is the second-largest holding of the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ, with an 8.3% weighting.

The stock is also a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but due to the index being price-weighted, it makes up a smaller percentage and holding in ETFs, like being the 23rd largest holding in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA and 1.9% of assets.

NVDA Price Action: Nvidia stock was up 3.2% to $135.44 on Tuesday, versus a 52-week trading range of $86.63 to $153.13. However, it is down 2.2% year-to-date in 2025, while shares have increased over 18% in the last year.

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