Citi Outperforms Analyst Expectations With 12% Revenue Growth, Confirms $20 Billion Buyback Plan

Citigroup Inc C reported a fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 revenue growth of 12% to $19.58 billion, topping the analyst consensus estimate of $19.48 billion.

Earnings per share, or EPS, of $1.34 beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.22.

The board also approved a new, multi-year $20 billion share buyback program. Now the bank expects a fiscal 2025 revenue of $83.5 billion to $84.5 billion, above the consensus estimate of $83.2 billion. Here’s how analysts reacted:

• Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden maintained Citigroup with a Buy and raised the price target from $77 to $86.
• Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst David Konrad reiterated Citigroup with an Outperform and raised the price target from $85 to $92.
• Truist analyst John McDonald assigned a Buy rating to Citigroup.

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Goldman Sachs: Citi managed to deliver about 3.5% revenue growth, decline in expense, and increasing buyback in 2024. The stock reaction reflects management’s outlook reassuring continued improvement in ROTCE in the coming years, supported by the buyback, decline in expense from the current run rate and positive operating leverage through 2026, and unchanged revenue growth profile even with the expense initiatives, which Ramsden estimates to grow roughly 4% in 2025 and 2026.

While management cut its ROTCE target by 100bps to 10%-11%, Ramsden noted that the market was not expecting Citi to reach the high end of its target by 2026. Management reiterated that return improvements will continue into 2027 and beyond. Ramsden now expects Citi to generate ROTCEs of 8.7% in 2025 and 10.5% in 2026.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: It was a solid quarter for Citi with a revenue beat driven by net interest income (NII), which included more significant than expected trading NII results. The stock was strong following the results, outperforming the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index BKX by 240bps, as the 2025 guidance was better than feared. Management did lower its 2026 ROTCE outlook from 11% to a range of 10% to 11% owing to higher franchise investments; however, the consensus was below the low point of this range, and it may provide a more visible glide path.

Although Citi’s stock has been historically cheap, Konrad noted that near-term catalysts make the stock more attractive. First, Citi is well positioned with its franchise, and recent management changes position the firm to capture revenue opportunities in investment banking and trading, given expectations for improved market conditions following the election, particularly in M&A, ECM, and FICC trading. Second, decreasing regulations could ease some control and procedure risks for Citi and provide meaningful capital relief.

Importantly, Konrad expects buybacks to accelerate, with a potential further acceleration should Basel III Endgame be meaningfully watered down. Given Citi’s Below-Tangible Book Value (TBV) valuation, this could be a strong catalyst for Citi.

The price target represents 9.8 times Konrad’s 2026E EPS. The analyst noted his price target is sensitive to changes in the macro environment, including interest rates, credit quality, and company-specific operations.

Truist: Citi lowers its 2026 ROTCE target to 10%-11% and guides 2025 revenues +3%-4% YoY to $83.5 billion-84.5 billion, ahead of consensus at $83.3 billion. Expenses for 2025 are guided down to “slightly lower than ~$53.8 billion” versus consensus at $53.4 billion.

Citi also announced a new $20 billion share repurchase authorization, and its $2.1 billion buyback in the fourth quarter of 2024 was ahead of consensus expectations. The fourth-quarter EPS of $1.34 was beat on the quarter versus the $1.23 consensus.

The price target is based on 9.1 times McDonald’s 2026E EPS estimate of $9.30, which assumes a below-peer multiple and reflects Citi’s inconsistent past execution on prior transformation initiatives and the need to build credibility with the Street.

Price Action: Citigroup stock is down 0.17% at $78.15 at the last check on Thursday.

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