EQT Dips, But JPMorgan Stays Bullish With Higher Price Forecast

EQT Corporation EQT shares are declining on Thursday. The company reported fourth-quarter results on Tuesday.

The company reported adjusted EPS of 69 cents, surpassing the 49 cents estimate, while adjusted sales of $1.82 billion exceeded the $1.77 billion forecast.

EQT expects to exit 2025 with approximately $7 billion in net debt at recent strip pricing, ahead of its $7.5 billion debt target.

JP Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram raised the price forecast from $53 to $58 while reiterating an Overweight rating.

The analyst notes that EQT’s 2025 outlook includes 550 Bcfe of production and $615 million in capex for Q1, which seems conservative given the company’s strong performance in 2024. 

As reserve development capital intensity decreases and compression investments stabilize from peak 2025 levels, Jayaram expects the strategic growth budget to trend downward. 

The company's guidance may also reflect some conservatism as it nears completion of its ETRN integration, which is currently about 90% complete, adds the analyst.

The analyst now projects 2025 production of 2,257 Bcfe, supported by $2.4 billion in total capex and generating $2.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF) at $3.53 per Mcf, compared to the company's guidance of $2.1-$2.3 billion at $3.50 per Mcf. 

Jayaram revised 2025/2026 EPS estimates to $3.22 and $4.87, slightly down from $3.28 and $4.85, respectively. 

These estimates are based on oil and gas prices of $69.86/$66.69 per bbl and $3.53/$3.90 per Mcf for 2025/2026, adds the analyst.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF RSPG and IShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF IEO.

Price Action: EQT shares are down 4.11% at $52.01 at the last check Thursday.

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