Zoom Eyes AI-Powered Growth, Analyst Highlights Innovation Momentum, Revenue Challenges

JPMorgan analyst Mark R. Murphy maintained a Neutral rating on Zoom Communications Inc ZM with a price target of $80.

Zoom reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.18 billion, up 3.3%, which is in-line with analyst estimates. The communications company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.41 per share, beating analyst estimates of $1.30 per share.

Also Read: Huawei Boosts AI Chip Production Despite Taiwan Semi And ASML Ban, Aims to Challenge Nvidia In China

Zoom expects first-quarter revenue of $1.162 billion-$1.167 billion. The company sees first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.29-$1.31 per share.

Coming into Zoom's fourth-quarter earnings, Murphy called out, as he had consistently throughout this earnings season, headwinds likely to arise from FX and the leap year dynamics, which were factors in Zoom's results.

The analyst said Zoom could see a similar upside to fourth-quarter total revenue guidance as it did in the second and third quarters and potentially continue modest growth acceleration from the third to the fourth quarter, which did not play out. The analyst also noted the fiscal 2026 Street consensus growth hurdle was achievable on a constant currency basis.

While there are puts and takes around leap year impacts, Zoom's first-blush fiscal 2026 revenue constant currency growth guidance comes in a tick below Street consensus or just about meets it under the most generous adjustments.

As a reminder, Zoom stated during its first-quarter earnings call approximately nine months ago that the second quarter would be " the low point for fiscal 2025 from a year-over-year growth perspective, and then seeing reacceleration in the back half from there."

While Zoom technically accelerated growth from 2.7% in the first half to 3.4% in the second half, Murphy said investors were hoping for consistent growth acceleration from quarter to quarter and conceivably fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance that implies acceleration.

The company has been discussing product initiatives to drive growth for some time.

For reference, constant currency growth was 3.5% in the first quarter, 2.4% in the second quarter, 3.6% in the third quarter and 3.6% in the fourth quarter.

Zoom is now guiding fiscal 2026 total revenue growth to 3.1% constant currency and, while not necessarily raising new concerns, continues to call out a mixed aspect to the macro environment.

Zoom continues to trade at a relatively low free cash flow multiple, though admittedly heavily boosted by SBC. However, Murphy said a rerating catalyst is in and would most likely be revenue growth acceleration toward the mid-high single digits or beyond.

The analyst reiterated his positive view of Zoom's innovation track record and meaningful momentum in proliferating AI through its install base and remained constructive overall. However, the lack of a clear growth catalyst beyond a few gradually developing points that can be sketched out kept the analyst on the sidelines.

Murphy projected first-quarter revenue of $1.14 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.35.

The price target is based on ~10 times EV/calendar 2026E unlevered free cash flow (uFCF). The multiple is at a discount to Zoom Video's primary comp set of Software Vendors with mid-high single-digit calendar 2026E growth and uFCF margin of ~20% or more, which trade at ~20 times EV/calendar 2025E uFCF on average. Murphy noted a discount is warranted given Zoom's inferior FTM growth profile, FTM GAAP operating margin and competitive dynamics within the communications software market.

ZM Price Action: Zoom stock is down 9.08% at $73.74 at publication Tuesday.

Also Read:

• International Game Technology Misses Q4 Earnings Estimates Amid Jackpot Slowdown

Photo: Courtesy Zoom