The Tesla Trade

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Elon Musk's leadership of the DOGE initiative for the Trump administration has thrown Tesla Inc TSLA into the center of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43905675/tesla-will-press-charges-against-vandalism-at-superchargers-as-brand-backlash-grows-over-elon-musks-political-ties">a global political storm</a>. 



Once a symbol of innovation, the electric vehicle company now finds itself at the heart of controversy, with protests erupting at dealerships, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44463376/tesla-showroom-targeted-in-austin-as-vandalism-escalates">vehicles vandalized</a>, and a massive "TeslaTakedown" day of action planned for Saturday, March 29. 



Musk faces a defining crisis as tensions boil over—can he steer Tesla through the chaos and reclaim control of the brand's future? Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives bets he can. 



On Thursday, Ives reiterated Tesla with an Outperform rating and a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/TSLA/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">$550 price target</a>.



Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44330619/tesla-bets-on-low-cost-evs-in-china-after-february-sales-hit-two-year-low" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla Bets On Low-Cost EVs in China After February Sales Hit Two-Year Low</a>



Ives expects a soft, rip-the-band-aid-off first-quarter delivery number to hit on April 2. If deliveries fall within the 355,000 to 360,000 range, that&#8217;s down roughly 7%. For context, original Street estimates were over 400,000 to start the quarter and have decreased drastically as the weekly global data has weakened. 



Europe&#8217;s numbers are under significant pressure, with demand softness also seen in the U.S. and China.



Much of this softness is related to customers waiting for Model Y refreshes. Also, Tesla expects to launch a new lower-cost model by the summer. However, anti-Musk and brand issues are clearly at play and significant in this weak first-quarter delivery number.



Ives estimated that 30% of the very soft first-quarter delivery number is related to Musk, the brand, and DOGE. About 70% is more timing and non-brand headwind issues.



&#8220;It has been a tumultuous few months for Musk and Tesla as investors have navigated a very stormy backdrop with Tesla becoming a lightning rod of controversy,&#8221; Ives wrote. Musk&#8217;s DOGE initiative has &#8220;essentially taken on a life of its own&#8221; and turned Tesla into &#8220;a political symbol globally with protests, violence and demonstrations at dealerships and cars keyed,&#8221; he added. 



Ives expects the first quarter to be the &#8220;low point.&#8221; The Street is reviewing the numbers to better understand the delivery trajectory for the rest of the year. 



That depends on whether Musk can balance being Tesla&#8217;s CEO and running DOGE. Ives says investors and employees yearn for Musk&#8217;s leadership at this juncture. 



Musk recently held an all-hands meeting, and the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/technicals/25/03/44460563/tesla-jumps-10-on-china-fsd-optimism-tariff-easing-hopes">stock has recovered somewhat</a>. The analyst noted that perhaps investors are starting to sense a potential turning point in this latest Tesla chapter.



Musk also impressed Ives with Tesla&#8217;s long-term strategic vision, which includes autonomous vehicles and robotics.



So far, Musk has guided Tesla towards Austin&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44458804/elon-musk-10-years-ago-called-autonomous-driving-a-solved-problem-said-we-will-be-there-in-a-few-years">unsupervised full self-driving</a>, or FSD. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/02/43906182/tesla-begins-hiring-for-cybercab-manufacturing-as-elon-musk-led-ev-giant-prepares-for-robotaxi-rollout">The Cybercab also debuted</a>. 



Plus, a lower-cost vehicle launch and more Model 3/Y refreshes, autonomous and robotics/Optimus technology improvements &#8220;set the stage for a new era of growth.&#8221;



&#8220;This continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to navigate this brand tornado crisis moment and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days ahead we see for the story,&#8221; Ives said. 



Ives projected first-quarter revenue of $24.05 billion and EPS of 56 cents.



Price Action:&nbsp;Tesla stock is up 2.6% at $279.12 at last check Thursday. It&#8217;s down over 26.4% year-to-date.



Also Read:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44283118/tesla-loses-ground-in-us-ev-market-while-rivals-accelerate-ahead-in-january-report" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla Loses Ground in US EV Market While Rivals Accelerate Ahead in January: Report</a></li>
</ul>



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Elon Musk must navigate this &quot;brand tornado crisis moment&quot; and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla, Dan Ives says.

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Elon Musk must navigate this "brand tornado crisis moment" and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla, Dan Ives says.

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