Tesla's Future Growth From Robotaxis And New Products Intact Despite Q1 Miss: Analyst

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter maintained Tesla Inc TSLA with an Overweight rating and lowered the price forecast from $450 to $400 on Wednesday.

The first-quarter financials will likely underwhelm.

Deliveries of 337K units missed consensus (378k), so the gross margin is probably trending near multi-year lows.

Also Read: Tesla’s Deliveries Slide In Q1 Amid Production Setbacks, Political Backlash

Plus, relying on new products for delivery growth is hard because Tesla has not disclosed specifications or pricing for “Model 2”. Potter slashed estimates to reflect this outlook.

However, while the analyst’s 2-3 month outlook leans bearish, he highlighted that Tesla could rally sharply whenever “big picture” catalysts emerge.

Potter said that some major catalysts (new products and robotaxis) are on the horizon.

Perhaps not on the first-quarter call, but eventually, the analyst noted Tesla will report good news on these topics. When that day arrives, he would not want to be underweight.

Potter offered updated thoughts ahead of first-quarter earnings (scheduled for the afternoon of April 22). No amount of first-quarter financial downside is likely to shock investors; expectations are low.

The analyst expects 2025 and 2026 deliveries of 1.74 million units and 2.09 million units, respectively. In his previous model, he had expected deliveries of 1.88 million for 2025 and 2.3 million for 2026.

Curiously, U.S. wait times on the refreshed Model Y have not risen. New product launches could offset faltering demand for Tesla’s existing vehicles. However, until Tesla discloses more details, Potter’s forecast for “Model 2” will be difficult to defend.

Potter slashed his EPS estimates to reflect lower deliveries and a slower margin ramp. The price target cut reflects lower EPS (still based on 120 times fiscal 2026 EPS.

Despite all the negativity, a single robo-taxi headline would likely change the narrative.

Full self-driving (FSD) software accounts for the bulk of Potter’s 20-year profit outlook. Given FSD’s contribution to the terminal value, robotaxi catalysts have an outsized impact.

Potter projected first-quarter revenue of $20.29 billion and EPS of $0.36.

Price Action: TSLA stock is down 7.23% at $235.78 at the last check on Wednesday.

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