Liberty Energy's Momentum Carries Into Q2 As JPMorgan Tracks Growing Supply-Side Risks

JP Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram trimmed the price forecast for Liberty Energy Inc. LBRT following first-quarter results reported last week.

Liberty Energy reported quarterly earnings of 4 cents per share, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of 5 cents per share, and sales of $977.46 million, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $954.73 million.

The company notes that a temporary pause in tariffs has eased economic pressure and reduced immediate concerns about oil demand.

Nonetheless, the management notes that the attention remains on supply factors, including shifts in OPEC+ strategy and potential export constraints from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.

Also Read: Liberty Energy 1Q Earnings Preview And Key Takeaways From Meeting Management Team

While commodity price volatility hasn’t yet shifted North American production plans, management expects oil producers to assess potential impacts on pricing.

Jayaram slashed the price forecast from $18 to $16 while reiterating a Neutral rating.

The analyst says that the company’s outlook reflects strong momentum from the first quarter to continue into the second quarter of FY25.

Activity levels are likely to remain stable for Publics and larger operators, which make up LBRT's primary customer base, adds the analyst.

Nevertheless, Jayaram writes that there may be emerging risks to activity in the second half of 2025.

The analyst slightly lowered the second-quarter EBITDA estimates to $173 million (up 2.9% quarter-over-quarter) from the previous estimate of $175 million.

The revision brings the estimate just below the mid-single-digit sequential EBITDA growth that management indicated during the earnings call, the analyst adds.

Also, Jayaram lowered the 2025/2026 EBITDA estimates to $680 million/$703 million (from $702 million/$839 million previously), and FCF generation estimates to $72 million/$26 million (from $31 million/$88 million earlier).

Price Action: LBRT shares were down 4.4% at $11.54 on Monday.

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