Citi Maintains Hold Rating on Eli Lilly

Citi is maintaining its Hold rating on shares of Eli Lilly LLY. “LLY announced results for its fully humanized GLP-1 Fc (LY2189265) thorough QT (tQT) analysis at the American Diabetes Association meeting in San Diego. In a single-dose study of supratherapeutic GLP-1Fc doses in health volunteers (7mg or 4mg) vs. 1.5mg used in its Phase III clinical trials,” Citi writes. “LLY reported that there were no increases in QT seen with all doses tested when compared to placebo. LLY expects its Phase III AWARD trials to complete and begin to read-out in 2012. LLY retains full rights to its fully humanized GLP-1 Fc, with substantially higher profitability. We model 2015E GLP-1 Fc worldwide sales of ~$225M. In addition, LLY and its partner AMLN also announced QT results from an analysis of the Bydureon DURATION-1 trial, which showed no clinically relevant increase in QT interval. “The supratherapeutic dose tQT study that the FDA has requested in its Bydureon complete response letter is expected to finish this month and is expected to be re-filed in 3Q11. We model Byetta/Bydureon franchise sales of ~$770M in 2015E. We maintain our LLY estimates and Hold rating.” Eli Lilly closed Friday at $36.76.