Century Aluminum Stock Soars On Analyst Upgrade And Smelter Restart Potential

Century Aluminum Company CENX shares are trading higher on Monday after BMO Capital analyst Katja Jancic upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform.

Jancic maintains a price target from $22 to $22.

The analyst writes that Century's valuation has become attractive following the recent sell-off. CENX shares are currently trading at 5.6x/5.3x our 2025E/2026E EBITDA based on aluminum/MWP prices of $1.15/lb/$0.30/lb.

At these levels, the analyst estimates EBITDA of $450 million to $500 million, implying a spot valuation under 4.0x.

Jancic says that the company is actively reviewing options for its idled smelter, with high interest in the asset.

The company may either sell or restart the smelter. This could generate $200-250 million in EBITDA at current spot prices, adds the analyst.

Read: US Steel, Aluminum Stocks Rally As Trump Revives 25% Tariff Plan

The company may benefit from the increased 25% aluminum tariffs, which will take effect on March 12, Jancic says.

Currently, U.S. domestic primary aluminum supply meets only around 20% of consumption needs, meaning the reliance on imported material is expected to drive up the Midwest Aluminum Premium (MWP), which has already risen to ~$0.40/lb, from the low 20s in January, adds the analyst.

Jancic writes that if this trend continues, it could add approximately $70 million, or more than 20%, to their 2025 EBITDA estimate.

Additionally, there is potential for the MWP to increase to the $0.45-0.50/lb range as tariffs fully take effect, offering further upside, adds the analyst.

Price Action: CENX shares are up 9.32% at $19.00 at the last check Monday.

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