Bulls Making a Run - but on No Volume

by Principle Analysis, Benzinga Contributor
March 24, 2011 12:03 PM | 3 min read |


The bulls are still making a go at pushing this market higher and have obviously been successful doing so the past few days.  Today the S&P did not break below my key level I mentioned yesterday at 1284.05, so I remain neutral.  The series of higher highs and higher lows remains intact therefore so does the uptrend.

Despite the bulls seeming to be in full control of this market according to the price action, they are doing it on very light volume, and almost every day the market moves higher while volume moves lower.  This diverging behavior is bearish and suggests the market will give way to a big downside move once volume re-enters the market.  Now tomorrow is a Friday so I doubt we'll get a lot of volume then, so the market may float higher to fill the gap at 1320 which I mention in the below paragraph.  But be aware of any news data that may hit the wires tonight and early tomorrow morning.  Despite it being a Friday, this market is poised to fall hard once volume re-enters the market and a big news event will probably bring that volume in whether it's Friday or not.  Coming below 1284.05 would instill great confidence that a top is in, and/or big volume with a sharp move lower would do so as well.  But until then, I'm waiting on the sidelines.



The bulls are making a strong charge to push the market higher with a convincing day to the upside so far today.  There's an open gap at 1320 the S&P MAY work its way toward closing before topping.  The current wave is a ((c)) of Y of (Y) which would explain the strength today since C waves are similar to 3rd waves in strength.  With no signs of a top and reversal, I don't want to get in this market's way right now.  But I'll keep my eye open for reversal signs near that gap level at 1320 and/or a big reversal sometime today as well.

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The euro surged higher with stocks this morning, failing to complete a clear impulsive decline.  Yet the british pound has completed an impulsive decline vs the USD.  So it's possible the pound has topped and reversed while the euro needs to make one more small high before topping.  I'm short the euro right now but the british pound looks good getting short if we get a big bounce from this 5 wave decline soon.  Either way, I'm looking to get long the USD (short the GBP or EUR) when opportunity arises.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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