GoPro's Earnings Likely To Take Back Seat To Q4 Outlook

Ahead of GoPro Inc GPRO third-quarter release, earnings and sales results will likely take a back seat to fourth-quarter guidance outlook.

GoPro has already released their third-quarter preliminary results in September, at the high end of its $290 million-$310 million guidance, so barring any surprises, investors will likely hone into fourth-quarter guidance to gauge the momentum of the company.

Bank of America analyst Jason Mitchell is forecasting fourth-quarter units down 20 percent, but average selling prices up due to:

1. Less retailer discounting to drive unit sales.
2. Tighter control on inventory, GoPro over-shipped by approximately 450,000 units in fourth-quarter 2016.
3. Fewer low average selling price units in channel.

With less units but higher average selling price product mix through the Hero6 and Fusion, may help GoPro meet street estimates and support the stock in the near term according to Mitchell (see his track record here).

Through channel checks conducted by Bank of America, the Hero6 was listed as the best-selling action camera on Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN, Best Buy Co Inc BBY and B&H.

“Hero6 outselling Hero5 may indicate some consumers are willing to pay for incremental 4K60 video and other features. Hero5 may still be the volume product if retailers discount in November, but for now trends suggest higher ASP mix.,” said Mitchell.

“Key Questions for 3Q call will be Black Friday retail promotion plans, marketing spend, and channel inventory levels,” he added.

Bank of America is lowering its unit sell-in to 1.83 million from 1.99 million but is raising its average selling price from $249 to $277. For fiscal 2018, the bank raised its EBITDA estimate from $87 million to $110 million.

Bank of America reiterates an Underperform rating on GoPro, citing long-term structural challenges to the action camera market, but raised its price target from $8 to $9.

Related Link: Enough's Enough: This Analyst Believes The GoPro Sell-Off Is Overdone