Bitcoin Bites, Amazon Acquires: Gene Munster's 8 Tech Predictions For 2018

With the exception of a few expected hiccups, the trends of 2017 are seen to persist and accelerate into the new year, preserving the ranks of major tech competitors.

Tesla Inc TSLA ramps its Model 3, Alphabet Inc GOOGL crushes AI, Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN buys Target Corporation TGT — it could all occur in a year's time, according to one analyst. 

Here are the predictions of Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Ventures:

The Thesis

• Amazon acquires Target. “Target is the ideal offline partner for Amazon for two reasons, shared demographic and manageable but comprehensive store count,” Munster said. 
• Bitcoin and competing cryptocurrencies sell off amid increased regulation, skepticism by institutional investors and operational issues across trading platforms. Despite the short-term setbacks and immediate bubble, Munster expects blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies “represent the future of storing value.”
• Tesla ramps Model 3 production from 2,500 to 150,000, but striking the estimate isn’t necessarily significant. “Short-term production numbers do not materially affect the long-term story,” Munster said. 
• Traditional automakers announce expansions to their electric vehicle lines, but plan no releases until 2019 or 2020. Meanwhile, autonomous vehicle projects quietly advance toward their 2021 target ramps.
• Artificial intelligence continues to trend and advance, driven by Google’s “Deepmind” project.
• Google Home seizes smart-speaker market share from Amazon.
• With a 30-percent mix of iPhone X and 18-percent mix of iPhone 8, Apple Inc. AAPL iPhone’s average selling price pops to $740 against consensus estimates of $710.
• Virtual reality hardware goes cordless but doesn’t become mainstream until 2019.

Price Action

At the time of publication, Tesla was set to open at $311, Alphabet at $1,058.50, Apple at $169.96 and Amazon at $1,173.50.

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