How Bad Is It? Absolutely Awful, and Far Worse Than BLS's Seasonally Adjusted Numbers are Telling Us (UPDATES: Fantasy-Based and Reality-Based Reactions)

Today's Employment Situation Summary is so much worse than it appears from the seasonally adjusted (SA) numbers that everyone will report that I need to dedicate a post to how horrid the not seasonally adjusted (NSA) numbers (i.e., the ones that reflect what's actually happening on the ground) really are.

The NSA and SA results from May 2001 through May 2011 are at the top right.

Concentrating strictly on the NSA numbers for a moment:

• The overall result of 682,000 jobs added is 38% less than last year's 1,103,000. Even after taking out about 400,000 census workers from last year's figure, there's no improvement. Does anyone remember May of last year being a great month for the economy? No? That's because it wasn't; second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was a measly annualized 1.7%. As bad as last year's second quarter was, this year's is shaping up as worse, at least in job creation. A worse second quarter for GDP shouldn't surprise anyone.
• Additionally, that +682K overall result is less than every year in the table except 2008 and 2009. Going back further (not pictured), it's worse than every other year since 1983, except for 1991′s +681K.
• The private sector's 723,000 jobs added in May, while better than the overall number, is still less than the five strong Mays under Bush 43 (2003-2007), which were almost universally and constantly derided as mediocre by the establishment press.

Now let's look at the NSA-SA translations. In terms of the total employment, I'll carry forward what I wrote earlier this morning:

• In May 2007, 942K in NSA additions translated to +141K SA.
• In May 2008, 570K in NSA additions translated to -233K SA.
• Interpolating between the two (I know that's not how seasonalizing works, but when you don't have the factors, you try to approximate), May 2011′s 682K in NSA additions might have been expected to translate into about 120K jobs lost.
• But instead, the reported SA result was +54K, a positive 174K difference.

Repeating the same exercise with the private sector:

• In May 2007, 925K NSA additions translated to +111K SA.
• In May 2008, 538K NSA additions translated to -240K SA.
• Interpolating between the two, May 2011′s 723K in NSA additions might have been expected to translate into about 70K jobs lost.
• But instead, the reported SA result was +83K, a positive 153K difference.

Beyond that, the overall SA result of +54K in May 2011 is better than May 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2006, even though each of those years saw more jobs added on the ground. Similarly, the private-sector's +83K for May 2011 is way above May 2003 and 2006, even though NSA additions in those two years were much higher.

Keep in mind that I'm not questioning BLS's methodology, and I'm not even saying that their SA numbers are “wrong.” I am saying that when you have almost three years of atypical and wildly fluctuating results (i.e., ever since the recession as normal people define it began in July 2008, and continuing since then, because NSA results obtained have consistently not reflected what goes on in a normal economy), seasonalization leads to answers that should NOT be seen and the be-all, end-all reflection of what really happened. Yet that's all that anyone ever hears. That is not how it should be.

There is no doubt that the job market is far worse than today's already-bad reported seasonally adjusted results indicate. Team Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Washington's Beltway Democrats have no one to blame but themselves for what their POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy has wrought.

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UPDATE: From the land of sheer fantasy known as the White House –

In a taste of what Obama is expected to argue, Austan Goolsbee, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, called the jobless numbers a bump on the road to recovery and defended the administration's policies.

“There are always bumps on the road to recovery, but the overall trajectory of the economy has improved dramatically over the past two years,” Goolsbee said in a statement.

My a**, Austan.

Also, from Weasel Zippers: Harry Reid is “encouraged that the private sector is continuing to grow and add jobs.”

UPDATE 2: Reality-based reactions –

• On the home page at Hot Air — “This is not the recovery you were looking for.”
• Michael Walsh at the New York Post — “Two years into the Obama administration, the country's finances are a looming calamity. An unemployment rate of more than 8 percent has become the new normal, and even that understates real unemployment, because so many Americans have simply left the job market.”
• At Zero Hedge — “People Who Want A Job Now, Average Duration Of Unemployment Both Hit All Time Highs”
• A brilliant point from Jeffrey Carter at Points and Figures (HT Instapundit) — “The effects of the crony capitalism economy are being seen in unemployment numbers. Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, huge unchecked runaway bureaucracy. It has created ‘The Great Uncertainty.'”