Why Paul Ryan's Retirement Could Signal 'An Increased Opportunity' For Impeachment Proceedings In 2019

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan has announced his retirement, a decision that has sparked talk that President Donald Trump could be vulnerable to impeachment prior to the 2020 election.

With Ryan on the way out the door, some experts say Republicans may have trouble raising money ahead of the midterm elections and could potentially lose control of the House of Representatives. If Democrats gain control of the House, they would likely push for a Trump impeachment.

'Increased Opportunity For Impeachment'

At the very least, it’s likely that Trump will have to work with an even more deeply divided Republican caucus next year, said Height Capital Markets analyst Stefanie Miller.

“If Trump faces a Congress under Democratic control as well as fewer Republicans willing or able to defend him, those conditions create increased opportunity for impeachment,” Miller said in a Wednesday note. 

Ryan’s announcement suggests he saw his re-election as an uphill climb at this point, meaning his seat is in play come November. Other Republican seats that were presumed safe could also be in play if Ryan is unable to fundraise effectively, Miller said. 

“We expect many donors will be slower to return Ryan's calls if people know he is gone in eight months."

According to online prediction market PredictIt, the current probability of a Trump impeachment is 47 percent.

According to Axios, Republicans might not wait for November to give Ryan the boot and could instead choose a replacement speaker as soon as possible.

Investors don’t seem to mind Ryan’s exit and the potential implications for Trump. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY is up 1 percent on Thursday.

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