AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for June 13- 17, 2011

By ForexMansion.com

Australia's currency dropped sharply last week against its major counterparts as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave interest rate steady for the sixth consecutive month at 4.75% as the Bank aims to support the economy to exit from its recession after the first quarter's contraction.

The Australian economy is still suffering from the natural disaster that have downside pressures on the recovery, while the Australian job advertisements slumped in May to the slowest pace in almost two years as employment growth retreated.

Expectations indicate that the Australian economy is losing momentum as employers have added 30,900 new positions in the first five months of this year, the weakest jobs growth since 2009 and the second-weakest in a more than a decade, as manufacturing, services and construction lag behind the mining industry that is expanding to meet Chinese demand for raw materials.

Meanwhile, Australian monetary policy makers see that according to the financial conditions in Australia there may be a need to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points in the second half of the year to contain inflation rates.

At the meantime, the commodities prices are going to increase as the gold may rise amid the fears of the slowing U.S. economic recovery and the debt crisis, boosting demand for the precious metal as haven investment that will generate new demand for Aussie.

Major highlights for this week that will affect the AUD/USD pair's trading:

Monday June 13:

The both economies do not have any data queued for release on Monday leaving the pair subject to the market sentiment.

Tuesday June 14:

At 00:30 GMT the Australian economy will start the week with the NAB business conditions reading for the month May, which came out at 5 in April. Moreover, at 01:30 GMT Australia is to present the NAB business confidence (MAY) that has a medium impact on the Aussie's movement, which was at 7 in April.

Moving to the U.S. economy, at 12:30 GMT the producer price index for May will be released, where the previous reading was 0.8% and it's expected to retreat to 0.1%. The annual producer price index is anticipated to come at 6.6% from the previous 6.8%.

The U.S. economy will release its advanced retail sales index for May at 12:30 GMT, and it's expected to come at –0.3% from the previous of 0.5%.

Wednesday June 15:

At 00:30 GMT, Australia is to release the Westpac leading index (APRI) that rose by 0.5% in March; also it will issue the Westpac consumer confidence for June, where the prior reading dropped to -1.3% in May.

The consumer inflation expectation index is due at 01:00 GMT for the month of June, where the May reading was at 3.3%.

At 01:30 GMT the AUD Dwelling starts is due for the first quarter that dropped by 5.3% during the fourth quarter of 2010.

The U.S. economy will start Wednesday at 11:00 GMT, when it publishes its MBA mortgage applications for June 10, where the prior reading was down by 0.4%.

The American consumer price index for May is due 12:30 GMT, where reading is expected to be steady at 0.0% after the previous rise of 0.4%. While the annual consumer price index is expected to come at 3.2% in line with the prior reading.

At 13:00 GMT, The U.S. will issue the Empire manufacturing survey for June, and the expectations refer to 13.5 from the previous 11.88. United States total net TIC flows for April will be issued at 13:00 GMT, and it had a previous reading of $116.0 billion and the net Long-Term TIC flows that recorded $24.0 billion in March.

The industrial production for May is due 13:15 GMT, where the previous reading was 0.0% and expected to come at 0.3%. As for the capacity utilization it's expected at 77.1% from the previous 76.9%.

Thursday June 16:

The Australian economy is to end the week's data with the new motor vehicles sales for May at 01:30 GMT, while it declined 3.5% in April.

At 12:30 GMT the U.S economy will release the weekly initial claims, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment last week rose 427 thousand.

The building permits for May will be published at 12:30 GMT, where the previous reading was down by 4.0% at 551 thousand and expected to decline by 2.3% to 550 thousand. While the housing starts index is expected to rise 3.3% to 540 thousand from 523 thousand.

The current account balance for the first quarter will be issued at 12:30 GMT, and it's expected to show a deficit by $126.0 billion from the previous deficit of $113.3 billion.

The U.S. economy will end Thursday at 14:00 GMT with the Philadelphia Fed survey for June which had a previous reading of 3.9 and anticipated to come at 7.

Friday June 17:

The U.S. economy, it will announce the University of Michigan Survey of consumer confidence sentiment for June at 13:55 GMT, where the preliminary reading is expected to come at 74.8 from the previous 74.3.

The Leading indicators index for May is due at 14:00 GMT where the previous reading was down by 0.3% and expected to rise by 0.2%. 

Originally posted here

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