AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for June 20-24, 2011

By ForexMansion.com

The Australian dollar declined against the dollar for the second week in a row amid rising uncertainties and jitters over the outlook for global growth and deepening debt crisis which supported the dollar on haven demand and risk aversion.

The debt crisis continues to intensify, fueling fears about the global economic recovery with rising expectations for Greece to default, supporting traders to withdraw their investments while they turn to safe investments.

Moreover, the Australia dollar declined to its lowest in three weeks as Asian stocks declined, damping demand for higher-yielding currencies such as the Aussie.

From the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) view, it sees that the global economy will start its expansion curve from the Asian region. Commodity prices, including oil prices, have generally continued to rise over recent months, pushing up measures of consumer price inflation in many countries.

In the week ahead, the Australian currency will find some support against majors if the RBA minutes were as hawkish as expected after the comments last week from Stevens suggested a rate hike at some point to contain inflation.

Major highlights for this week that will affect the AUD/USD pair's trading:

Monday June 20:

Both countries won't release any fundamentals with the start of the week, leaving the pair's movement bound by the prevailing sentiment.

Tuesday June 21:

The market is waiting an important release from the Australian economy that has a heavy impact on the market's movement, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the meeting minutes for the last meeting at 01:30 GMT after it the hawkish comments and accordingly will be watched closely for more hints.

The U.S. economy will take the lead at 14:00 GMT, and release the existing home sales index for May, where it's expected to fall by 4.0% at 4.85 million from 5.05 million.

Wednesday June 22:

The U.S. economy will issue MBA mortgage applications at 11:00 GMT, with a previous of 8.2%. At 16:30 GMT the Federal Reserve Bank will announce its Open Market Committee rate decision, where all eyes will be focus on the central bank statement as they are expected to keep rates steady at 0.0-0.25%. The Feds Bernanke will speak at a press conference at 18:15 GMT.

Thursday June 23:

At 12:30 GMT the U.S. economy will release the weekly initial claims, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment last week eased to 414 thousand.

The U.S. economy will release the existing home sales index for May at 14:00 GMT, where it's expected to fall by 4.0% to 310 thousand from 323 thousand.

Friday June 24:

The United States will end the week by issuing a number of important economic data, starting with the durable goods orders for May at 12:30 GMT, where it's expected to come at 2.0% compare to the previous drop of 3.6%. The durable goods excluding transportation for May are expected to come at 1.0% from the prior –1.5%.

At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will announce the final reading for the gross domestic product for the first quarter, where it is expected with an upside revision to 1.9% from 1.8%.

The core personal consumption expenditure during quarter one is expected to remain at 1.4% also personal consumption to remain unrevised at 2.2%.

Originally posted here

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