Are Box Office Failures (Green Lantern, X-Men, Super 8) a Bad Sign for Cars 2?

Judging by the some of the recent failures at the box office, you might be wondering if moviegoers are getting smarter, pickier, or both. Two weeks ago, Super 8 performed fairly well by industry standards but fell below my own $70 million prediction. While there were signs that the film wouldn't perform well (ex: Super 8 had fewer show times than the week-old X-Men: First Class), this was a large and heavily hyped project for writer/director/producer J.J. Abrams and co-producer Steven Spielberg. Given the success that both filmmakers have had in the past, Super 8 should have easily earned back the reported $50 million that Paramount VIA, Amblin Entertainment, and Bad Robot Productions poured into the production. But it seems as if the vague trailers and brand-name hype weren't quite enough to persuade moviegoers after all. Brett Callwood, one of Benzinga's leading film aficionados, had a few thoughts on the matter. “The Super 8 trailer was mildly intriguing, but certainly didn't pull me in,” he said. “It could, however, be suffering from bad timing. I, like many other comic book fans, grew up with and feel very affectionate towards the characters Thor, Green Lantern, the X-Men, and Captain America. (I avoid using the word ‘geek' because I love the characters, but I don't know every minute detail about them.) So honestly, the teasing intrigue of Super 8 gets lost on me when in competition with the simple notion of seeing characters from my youth battling it out in the flesh.” While many comic book lovers share Callwood's excitement, the mainstream crowd – which Hollywood relies on to bolster profits – was not overly intrigued by the last three major releases, which includes X-Men and the Green Lantern. Box Office Mojo sums it up quite nicely. “Green Lantern's start landed behind X-Men: First Class's $55.1 million and Thor's $65.7 million, and its Friday-to-Saturday drop of 22 percent was steeper than those movies' eight percent,” Box Office Mojo writes. “The gross was also less than The Incredible Hulk and the two Fantastic Four movies, and the attendance disparity was only greater. Green Lantern's estimated attendance was even lower than Daredevil and Ghost Rider.” Lower than Daredevil and Ghost Rider? Ouch! The Hollywood Spin In defending his decision to keep Super 8's story a secret, J.J. Abrams told NPR that the “experience of going to a film and seeing the movie and not knowing every plot twist is something that has been ruined and spoiled for moviegoers.” “I don't want to be coy or some type of jerk or be withholding — it's not a Machiavellian sort of thing — it's literally wanting people to have a good time and to have a little bit of a surprising time,” Abrams said. “So whenever I'm trying to keep things quiet, it is 100 percent an effort to make the experience of actually seeing the movie or TV show more enjoyable for the viewers." Having grossed around $37 million during its opening weekend, Super 8 was considered a success for surpassing studio expectations while staying in-line with District 9's opening weekend haul. The film is also gaining attention for performing better than The Happening, Battle: Loss Angeles, and The Day the Earth Stood Still. This, however, is not the tale of a Hollywood success story. While District 9 is considered a cult classic, the latter three films are rarely regarded as anything more than a disappointment. Never mind the weak critical reception or the lackluster ticket sales; among those who paid to see these films, few actually seemed to enjoy them. Paramount is obviously hoping that, given the more positive response to Super 8, it will have a long life in theaters and go on to become one of the most profitable films of the year. Unfortunately, Cloverfield – one of the few films that Super 8 can be directly compared to – has set a terrible precedent. While it earned $40 million during its first weekend, the film topped off at roughly $80 million. In other words, the film earned 50% of its gross during its first three days of release. Pixar's Golden Toy Unofficial Fanboy Disclaimer: I love Pixar. To death. Till the end of time. To infinity and beyond. Now that we've gotten that out of the way, it's time to address the elephant in the room. And no, I'm not talking about a 3D remake of Dumbo. (That would be cool though, wouldn't it?) The “elephant” I'm referring to is Cars 2, a movie that breaks the Pixar tradition of avoiding sequels that don't have “Toy Story” in the title. When Disney DIS announced that Cars 2 was in development, many thought it was a questionable move. But Cars was enormously successful with kids, leading to more merchandising opportunities than a toy collector could count. The Cars video game, published by THQ THQI, was so popular that it spawned several sequels and encouraged Disney to retain the publishing rights to the Toy Story 3 and Cars 2 video games. Thus, Disney couldn't resist the temptation to release a sequel. That's the cynical view of the film's production. The more positive (and hopefully more accurate) view is that Pixar realized that there was another story to tell, one that was worthy of being turned into a full-length feature. However entertaining the film may or may not be, the current sales projects are painfully accurate: $59 million, says Box Office Mojo. Honestly, if the film sucks it shouldn't make half that. Moviegoers need to send the message that Disney cannot get away with commercializing Pixar into the ground. But if the movie lives up to Pixar's standards (and why shouldn't it? Has Pixar ever let us down?), I will be disappointed by a box office open of anything less than a $70 million. To be clear, my disappointment will be not be with Disney or Pixar but with moviegoers who foolishly skipped great Pixar films in the past (Ratatouille, anyone?) because the commercials weren't as appealing as Finding Nemo or Monsters, Inc. That is a really lame move. This is Pixar, people! Pixar does not make crappy movies. Where Failure is Due One final point: don't buy into the hype that comic book movies are a dying breed. While it's true that the latest batch has underperformed at the box office, I'm convinced that this has more to do with the quality of the trailers/finished product than the possibility that moviegoers have given up on comics. Trust me: we haven't. We love comic book movies. Good comic book movies. And if a trailer doesn't look good, most people won't head to the theater – regardless of the names, labels, producers or directors that are attached. Follow me @LouisBedigian