Puma Biotechnology Inc PBYI announced fourth-quarter results and 2019 guidance Thursday that were ahead of expectations, boosting confidence in Nerlynx achieving a global product revenue estimate of $683 million in 2023, according to Cantor Fitzgerald.
The Analyst
Cantor Fitzgerald’s Alethia Young maintained an Overweight rating on Puma Biotechnology and raised the price target to $57.
The Thesis
The LA-based pharmaceutical company reported strong fourth-quarter results, with U.S. Nerlynx sales of $61 million handsomely beating the consensus expectation of $53 million. Puma Biotechnology guided to 2019 U.S. Nerlynx sales of $255-$280 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $238 million.
This was the company’s first cash flow-positive quarter, recorded at around $8 million, Young said in a Thursday note.
Based on its performance in fourth-quarter, the annual run rate for the breast cancer drug is around $240 million, the analyst said. The 2019 guidance implies 6-17 percent growth, which could prove conservative, she said.
“We expect the company will frame growth in terms of bottles from here on, as contribution from spec distribution channel seem to have increased,” Young said, projecting U.S. net sales of $269 million for 2019.
Price Action
Puma Biotechnology were rallying 36.14 percent higher to $37.86 at the time of publication Friday.
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