Analyst Likes Tilray In The Long Run, But Says Stock Is Overvalued Right Now

Cronos Group Inc CRON and several other cannabis stocks have received some love from Wall Street analysts in the past week, but one analyst said Wednesday the 2019 struggles for Tilray Inc TLRY will continue in the near term.

The Analyst

Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh initiated coverage of Tilray on Wednesday with a Perform rating and no price target.

The Thesis

Even with Tilray shares down nearly 50 percent year to date, Parikh said it's still hard to justify much upside for the long-term growth stock given its current valuation.

“We look favorably on Tilray’s ability to capitalize on the longer term growth opportunities globally, but we believe the combination of a full valuation and the potential for a slower ramp in Canada given supply shortages in an ‘asset-light model’ limit the potential for outperformance near term,” Parikh wrote in a note.

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Parikh said Tilray is bulking up its Canadian business by improving its infrastructure and is adding to its CBD business via acquisitions. In the medical business, Tilray has opportunity to expand into new geographical markets, as well as add new partners.

Another long-term differentiator for Tilray is the company’s top-tier management teams, which Parikh said is one of the best among top cannabis companies. In addition, partnerships with companies like Sandoz, Shoppers Drug Mart, Pharmasave Drugs and Anheuser Busch Inbev NV BUD bode well for the company’s long-term positioning in key markets.

Unfortunately, Tilray shares trade at about 6.5 times Oppenheimer’s fiscal 2021 sales forecast and about 45 times the firm’s 2021 EBITDA estimate, a valuation that suggests little near-term upside.

Price Action

Tilray shares traded lower by 2.5 percent to $35.63 on Wednesday.

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