Apple Analyst Says 2020 iPhone Shipments Tracking Ahead Of Expectations On Strong Global Demand

Apple Inc. AAPL is poised to exceed street estimates for iPhone sales in 2020, according to Longbow Research.

The Apple Analyst

Shawn Harrison has a Buy rating on Apple with a $345 price target.

The Apple Thesis

Longbow Research's conversations early this year are providing visibility into iPhone launches and the mix of iPhone demand, and they support a bullish forecast for calendar 2020, Harrison said in a Tuesday note. (See his track record here.)

Longbow's Apple sales and EPS forecasts are above the Street on the basis of an above-consensus iPhone forecast due to strong global demand excluding China and the benefit of the impending SE2 launch, the analyst said.

Strength in AirPod/accessory sales and services growth will also help, Harrison said.

The analyst estimates iPhone shipments of 70.3 million for the calendar year first quarter and 206.6 million for fiscal year 2020.

The following are key takeaways from Longbow's iPhone checks, the analyst said:

Production of the iPhone SE2 is set to begin after the Chinese New Year, suggesting possible shipments during the late calendar year first quarter or in the second quarter. SE2 shipments are expected to come in at 16-18 million for the first half of calendar year 2020.
Longbow's contacts forecast 10%-plus shipment growth in the first quarter of the calendar year 2020, driven by iPhone 11 and SE2 shipments.
Shipments of iPhones are likely to grow 10% in calendar year 2020, with Longbow's sources expecting Apple to come out with some iteration of a 5G iPhone, although visibility on this is limited.