These ETFs Could Forecast 2012 Election Results (IEZ, UGA, VROM)

A lot can happen between now and November, but let's be honest: It doesn't take fancy models or indicators to figure out what the result of the presidential election would be if held today. President Obama would win going away and it really doesn't matter who the GOP nominates. Economic data, including the February jobs number, supports that assertion as does a bullish tenor to the equity markets. Then there's the matter of common sense. In 2008, President Obama garnered 365 electoral votes compared to 173 for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). As we learned in high school, 270 are needed to win. Where are the 97 needed for a GOP challenger to win going to come from. Even if that challenger flips Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia back to the Republican column, that's 86 electoral votes based on the 2008 map. Still 11 short. It's all theoretical until November, but there are some ETFs out there that could signal President Obama is in trouble, so keep an eye on these funds over the coming months. They might just forecast the result of this year's election.

The United States Gasoline Fund tracks NYMEX-traded unleaded gas futures and this fund has already spent much of this flirting with new 52-week highs. Bullish employment data is obviously good, but consumer spending is important as well and that data point could suffer if gas prices keep ascending. If UGA finds it way into the mid or high $60s over the next 90-120 days, that could mean music to the ears of any GOP challenger.

Obviously related to UGA in more ways than one, there is the Global X Auto ETF

. Exclusive of the looming election

to give VROM a look. The ETF has been a solid performer this year, helped by strong sales numbers from Ford

and General Motors

. If VROM keeps moving higher, that's probably a sign folks are feeling good about the economy. If VROM heads back to its October 2011 low below $11, there might be a new resident at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Is it possible that President Obama could win reelection even as the price of the iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equipment Index Fund moves higher? Some would say "No way. Aren't IEZ's constituents going to spend heavily send Obama packing?" The answer to that question is almost certainly "yes," here's why a summer surge in IEZ could be good news for the President: IEZ is high beta. As in a beta of 1.51. If investors are pouring money into this ETF, it's not because they're worried about the outcome of the election. It's because risk on is being further validated and maybe because the election won't be all that close. On a related note, also track the PowerShares Dynamic Oil & Gas Services Portfolio

.

This one is a bit of a stretch for a couple of reasons. First, EIS doesn't have great volume. Second, the ETF is up over 35% since President Obama took office. Still, Obama's relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is frayed. He's failed, as have his predecessors, to control Israel's aggression toward its neighbors just as he's failed to control Arab states' aggression against Israel. Positive price action in EIS later this year could be a sign the market is forecasting an Obama loss and that he will be replaced by someone that is perceived a more voracious supporter of Israel.