iPad Sales Disappoint?

Did Apple fail to produce another record-breaking success story, or are the negative reports being blown out of proportion? That's the question on everyone's mind this morning as we brace ourselves for Apple's AAPL conference call. But Apple won't be talking sales numbers; rather, the company is going to use the call to discuss how it plans to use it cash. Of course, the mere fact that Apple won't talk about the iPad is drawing concern for how well the device is actually selling at retail. While the lines were long in New York and other major locations, the same cannot be said for the rest of the world. At one Metro Detroit location, for example, there were plenty of iPads for everyone. I've attended a few other Apple launches, and this was the first time that the retailer might have actually had enough units to last through the weekend. And when you consider how quickly the line diminished (roughly 50 people were there when the doors opened; 30 minutes later, no one was left), it's possible that this particular location still has a few iPads in stock. Based on U.S. iPad Traffic data, Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry believes that the new iPad might not be as hot as the iPhone 4S. “Developers think that http://labs.chitika.com/ipad/ is a good reflection of U.S iPad Traffic Breakdown and is probably accurate,” he wrote in a report late Sunday evening. “We don't know how the global launch is coming.” “The Chitika site points out that about 4.48% of application traffic is coming from the new iPad,” Chowdhry continued. “The converged view is that if the new iPad was as successful as the iPhone 4S launch, the traffic from the new iPad should have been 12% - 15% of the application traffic within 48 hours, and it is not, which probably indicates a softer adoption for the new iPad.” Chowdhry said that the “converged view” indicates that “U.S. new iPad sales may be somewhat light.” “Apple may announce distribution of cash to shareholders tomorrow, Monday March 19th,” said Chowdhry. “Apple's CEO has become quite promotional in recent months and together, with the distribution of cash, this may compensate for the not-so-spectacular, but many products this year.” Chowdhry's most damaging comment came at the end of his report: “Apple may be becoming like just any other company and may need to distribute cash assets to sustain its stock price.” It's not everyday that you see someone refer to Apple as “any other company.” But that was the concern when Steve Jobs passed away. Even before that, many have wondered if Tim Cook could continue the company's impressive legacy. When Cook took the helm as Apple's new CEO, he was thought to be a man who hates inventory. But why would a man who hates inventory ship a large number of iPads when there was the very real possibility that they won't sell out overnight? Could it be that Cook thought there was greater demand for the tablet? Leading up to the release of the new iPad – previously known as the iPad 3 and iPad HD – consumers were excited for a multitude of features (4G LTE, Retina Display, quad-core processor), most of which made it into the final product. In general, the consumer reaction to the new iPad seemed to be more positive than the initial to the iPhone 4S, which was somewhat negative. “It's more of the same,” people claimed of the iPhone 4S, which went on to sell faster than any other smartphone. But the iPhone 4S had something fresh and exciting: Siri. Prior to that smartphone's release, voice activated software was thought to be for techies only. Apple made it cool, sexy, and fresh. It made consumers want to own an iPhone 4S just to experience the possibilities of Siri. The new iPad has no such feature. It could have had Siri support out of the box (and presumably will at some point in the future), but that might not have made a difference since Siri is no longer “new.” At a base price of $500, the iPad isn't exactly the kind of device people are willing to replace on an annual basis. That too may have impacted sales of the new tablet. Ahead of launch, however, this was impossible to tell. The hype and anticipation was so high that it seemed like there was no way Apple couldn't sell every iPad it manufactured, regardless of how many were actually shipped. But that belief was based solely on the media and a relatively small (but significant) group of people on the Internet. I call that the “extrapolation effect.” This is when the media and/or web-surfing consumers make something appear to be more popular than it actually is, a phenomenon that occurs frequently within the entertainment industry. No extrapolation effect is more famous than the battle between Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien. On the Internet and in the media, O'Brien seemed to have won the war with all of the “Team Coco” nonsense. But actions speak louder than words, and when viewers took action, O'Brien's failed to achieve ratings that were comparable to Leno or David Letterman. In the years leading up to O'Brien's move to the Tonight Show, new competition from Jimmy Kimmel and Craig Ferguson caused O'Brien's ratings to decline. But if you were to ignore the ratings and simply listen to the media or O'Brien's Team Coco supporters, you would have been led to believe that he was the number-one comedian on TV. The same thing may be happening here with the iPad. The hype and hoopla – and daily stories promoting the device – may have given consumers (and investors and anyone else watching) the impression that this would be the iPad 2 and the iPhone 4S all over again. That might not be the case. And even if is, this is still a different world for Apple. It's rare that consumers can just walk into a store and buy a new Apple product with ease. But on Friday, March 16, they had the opportunity to do just that. Follow me @LouisBedigian