Send This ETF Out To Pasture

As home to many a high-beta name, the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF MOO should be a solid performer when the market is doing well and an ETF to avoid when the market is faltering. Unfortunately, only one of those scenarios has played out recently and it is the latter. While the broader market was chugging higher off its February lows, MOO lagged, held back for any number of reasons, not the least of which was a dour profit report from Monsanto MON. That was followed up by a less-than-inspiring report from Mosaic MOS and then investors seemed to realize all the good news in the fertilizer market was already priced into stocks like Potash POT and there was simply nothing left to MOO move higher. In other words, this was a weak ETF in a strong market. Now, MOO is a weak ETF in a market that is teetering. More than 5,000 June 41 puts have changed hands in MOO today, indicating a bearish tenor against the ETF. That's understandable. MOO is down 5% in the past three months while the S&P 500 is up about 8%. Being long MOO would only be advisable for long-term investors and even in that scenario better prices can be had. The point and figure chart indicates a return to $26 is possible. The Professor thinks that may be a bit much but a drop to $35 is certainly probable in the near-term. Cautiously bullish above $43-$44.