Analysts Are Having A Hard Time Predicting Solar Beyond 2016

Philip Shen of Roth Capital Partners commented in a note that near-term fundamentals for the solar sector are "healthy."

Shen added that visibility beyond 2016 "remains unclear."

Shen's top solar picks remain Hannon Armstrong Sustnbl Infrstr Cap Inc HASI, Solaredge Technologies Inc SEDG and Canadian Solar Inc. CSIQ.

Philip Shen, Roth Capital Partners' analyst covers solar stocks hosted the firm's annual ROTH Solar Symposium on Tuesday in conjunction with the Solar Power International Conference and Expo, the largest annual solar conference/expo in the United States.

Here are some key takeaways from the event, which consisted of discussions with key executives and industry experts.

United States/China Update

The U.S. and Chinese governments have been working "extensively" on formulating a trade agreement that would comprise shipments of modules into the United States and polysilicon shipped into China.

The analyst suggested that "we may be close to a solution" and an announcement could be announced during President Xi's visit to the White House on September 25.

Average Selling Prices

Module average selling prices (ASP) are "stable" with some "modest potential" for upside due to strong demand. The analyst noted that current ASPs are approximately 63-67c/W in the United States, 55c/W in China and in the high 50s in Japan.

Feed-In Tariff (FIT) Payment Issues In China

FIT payment delays from China "remain an issue" although the Chinese government could address the issue ahead of (or part of) its new five-year plan with some progress expected as early as the fourth quarter.