Is The Stock Market Predicting A Recession Or Auto Slowdown?

In a new report, UBS analyst Colin Langan takes a closer look at the bearish trading in the auto industry so far in 2016. According to Langan, most names in the space have already priced in the most bearish potential outcome.

Auto stocks are down about 21 percent so far in 2016, and Langan argues that automakers and suppliers are already trading at multiples reflecting a 4.0 percent decline in global sales, nearly as bad as the 5.0 percent 2008 decline.

Related Link: We Currently Face A 20% Chance Of Recession

“While US growth is possibly moderating, the market is pricing in a large global decline, which is not consistent with actual results and leading indicators,” Langan explains. He sees the 2016 pullback as a buying opportunity for most auto names.

UBS has reiterated its Buy ratings on Ford Motor Company F, BorgWarner Inc. BWA, Johnson Controls Inc JCI, General Motors Company GM, Tenneco Inc TEN, Visteon Corp VC and Lear Corporation LEA.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.