Jefferies Gives Black Friday Preview

Jefferies is Ultra Bullish On Holiday 2010. Compares remain easy on a 2-year basis, consumer spending momentum is building, mall traffic is up, and inventories are controlled. Bottom line, we expect holiday 2010 sales to beat consensus expectations, which remain muted. Jefferies thinks this is a very bullish indicator of Holiday spending. Last year, November sales were soft ahead of Black Friday as the consumer knew to wait for deals. This year, Jefferies believes consumers realize deals will be less aggressive, while lean inventories could lead to product shortages. Last year, winners were off-price and discount stores while jewelry and home/furniture stores were the losers. This year we expect mall based retailers to outcomp off-price/discount stores and believe jewelry and home furnishing retailers will make a comeback. Jefferies also think teen retailers will see strong results this year. Jefferies' top picks for Holiday 2010 are Buy-rated Abercrombie & Fitch ANF, American Eagle AEO, Coach COH and Fossil FOSL.