More iPhone Cuts Came Today, But Does It Really Matter?

A pair of analysts delivered another round of iPhone estimate cuts on Thursday.
 

CLSA’s Avi Silver dialed back fiscal 2016 unit estimates from 217 million to 214.8 million and 2017 estimates from 237.6 million to 230.6 million, citing slower growth in Asia and forex headwinds.

In addition, Mizuho’s Japan team reduced its 2016 iPhone production forecast as well. According to their report, they don’t expect the performance or appearance of the iPhone 7 will make the device “a runaway hit.”

Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that Apple Inc. AAPL shares are trading up slightly on Thursday despite the estimate cuts. Apple’s stock has been relatively resilient so far in 2016, down just 3.6 on the year in the face of a barrage of iPhone estimate cuts.

Related Link: How Has Apple Performed In The 7-Year Bull Market?

In Jan 7, UBS analyst Steven Milunovich cut his fiscal 2016 iPhone estimate by 5.0 percent to 220 million units.

On Jan 12, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster lowered his Q1 2016 iPhone unit estimate from 62.5 million to 55 million.

On Jan 21, Credit Suisse analysts cut 2016 iPhone estimates for the second time in two months, reducing them to 207 million units for calendar year 2016 and 226 million units for 2017.

If Apple’s 2016 price action is any indication, the market seems to have already priced in potentially weak iPhone numbers this year. According to tech stock expert Sean Udall, any additional cuts will likely have very little impact on the stock. 

"They could very well be overshooting (to the downside) at this point given the now massive installed base for older iPhones coming into the new upgrade cycle," Udall tells Benzinga. "At some point the focus will shift to AAPL's reinvestment of their massive cash flow production and away from iPhone sales growth or lack thereof."

Apple will clear up any controversy surrounding its iPhone sales when it reports its Q1 earnings in about six weeks time.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.