Electric Vehicles Will Hit 50% Market 'Inflection Point' By 2040

In the firm’s new EV Inflection Tracker report, Lux Research analyst Cosmin Laslau presents his annual report card of the auto industry’s transition to electric vehicles (EV). According to Laslau, the industry has a long way to go before the majority of new automobile sales are EVs.

Lux first took a look at the top EV options currently on the market in five different vehicle categories: small cars, SUVs, large cars, pickup trucks and luxury vehicles. In each category, Lux named a top vehicle.

In the small car category, the honor went to General Motors Company GM’s Chevy Volt. Laslau noted that the majority of the activity in EVs will be happening in the small car space in coming years, with Tesla Motors Inc TSLA potentially being a major new presence.

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The Renault Fluence Z.E. took the top spot in the large car category, and the Tesla Model S was the winner in the luxury segment.

Manufacturers have yet to devote much effort to pickup trucks and non-luxury SUV EVs.

Looking ahead, Laslau believes that the most critical EV vehicle type for the mass market will be a vehicle with an electric driving range greater than 200 miles and a price below the average new vehicle price in the low $30,000 range. Lux anticipates that EVs will reach 50 percent market share of all new vehicle purchases somewhere between 2035 and 2040.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.