The Derivatives Market Is Betting Almost Exclusively On A Selloff

Virtually the entire derivatives market is betting that the S&P 500 won’t be headed much higher in coming months. According to Credit Suisse analyst Mandy Xu, the recent spike in the Credit Suisse Fear Barometer (CSFB) was driven almost entirely lower call demand and is one of the key market themes this week.

“The derivatives market is assigning less than 1 percent probability the market will rise by 10 percent in the next three months vs. 17 percent probability it will fall by 10 percent,” Xu explained.

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The CSFB currently sits at its highest point in more than three years.

Despite the fears, the S&P 500 opened the week slightly higher on strength in the oil market. Credit Suisse credits a report from Russia that its 2017 production will be flat year-over-year.

The big story this week could be the kick-off of big bank Q1 earnings season. Expectations appear to be extremely low for the banks, and Credit Suisse notes that the “Big Four” stocks, JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, Bank of America Corp BAC, Citigroup Inc C and Wells Fargo & Co WFC all screen cheap ahead of earnings.

Credit Suisse’s fund flow data indicates that high-yield bonds logged their eighth consecutive day of inflows last Friday, and a bounce-back in emerging market inflows suggests that investors are now approaching the space with cautious optimism.

Disclosure: The author is long BAC.

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