The All-Important Number For Netflix: It's Only Missed International Subscriber Guidance Once Since 2014

Netflix, Inc. NFLX shares rest near $102, one week before the company reports first quarters results. Goldman Sachs, for its part, thinks Netflix will come in at $1.176 billion in revenue and $0.08 in adjusted EPS, in line with analyst consensus, according to new analysis from Heath Terry.

Goldman also sees 1.8 million domestic subscribers added in the quarter and 4.4 million international subscribers, in line with Netflix's guidance. Goldman's Buy rating on the company isn't based on any expectations of beat-and-raises in the near future, but rather a risk-reward skewed to the upside.

Related Link: SunTrust's Bob Peck Sees Upside To Netflix's Q1 Subs Offset By Lower Q2

How Has Netflix Performed Historically Against Subscriber Guidance?

Most interestingly, Goldman provides a chart of historical net subscriber guidance versus actual results. Netflix has missed domestic numbers in two straight quarters but only missed international subscriber estimates once since 2014.

Given that the majority of Netflix's growth opportunity is overseas, most would argue international results will have the greatest effect on shares post-results. Some disagree about this, and that criticism of investors' over-importance on international subs is fair, so watch any commentary about price hike implications on the call as well.

The full chart is below (click to enlarge).

Q2 Original Content Season Looks Strong

More anecdotally, Goldman analysts think Netflix's second quarter could be strong with new premiers for "Orange is the New Black," "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt," "Grace and Frankie," and "Bloodline," along with the first season of "Marseille."

Goldman's $130 price target is based on a 38X 2017 estimated EV/EBITDA; the firm expects EBITDA growth of 70 percent through 2018, about three times the industry average.