Which Candidate Are Gamblers Betting On In November?

A pair of new election polls out on Friday shows Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in an extremely close race. A Quinnipiac poll puts Clinton’s lead at 5 percent, and a Rasmussen poll shows it at only 1 percent. An LA Times/USC Tracking poll, on the other hand, has Trump in the lead by 2 percent.

While the polls indicate a race that’s too close to call, data from the world’s largest internet betting exchange, Betfair, indicates that Hillary Clinton is a heavy favorite to win the election.

As of Friday morning, Betfair market gamblers are giving Clinton a 71.1 percent chance of victory compared to just a 26.1 percent chance for Trump.

According to electionbettingodds.com, the Betfair numbers imply a 341–197 electoral college victory for Clinton in the election.

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Polls have shown that Clinton received a boost following the first presidential debate. The Betfair data is also showing bets on Clinton are on the rise as well. Clinton’s betting odds of winning the election are up 3.0 percent in the past week alone.

Many speculators view the gambling market as more reliable than poll data because participants have real money on the line. However, gamblers are far from perfect when it comes to predictions.

Just this year, a number of U.K. bookies had placed the odds of a Brexit vote at around 10 percent ahead of the surprising outcome.

Trump supporters are hoping for a similar surprise in November.

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