How To Play The Market From Thanksgiving To New Year's Eve: A Historical Look

With the Thanksgiving holiday a day away, investors are approaching one of the best seasonal trading opportunities in recent decades. On Monday, the NYSE tweeted the following fact:

“Since 1987 the Dow has posted gains from Black Friday close until year end 22 out of 28 times."

That means the year-end trade has worked more than 78 percent of the time for nearly three decades.

Benzinga took a closer look at the numbers over the past 10 years.

Since 2006, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY has, in fact, averaged a 1.3 percent gain from Black Friday to New Years. In that 10-year stretch, the SPY has delivered gains seven out of 10 times, nearly in-line with the NYSE’s longer-term numbers.

Unfortunately, the most recent numbers haven’t been so positive for traders. Since 2012, the SPY has averaged a -0.3 percent move during the year-end stretch, including down years in 2015 and 2014.

This year, the SPY is on track for a more than 8 percent annual gain. The ETF has gotten quite a boost from Donald Trump’s election, rising nearly 3 percent in the first two weeks following Election Day.

If the market maintains that Trump momentum, investors will be having a very happy holiday season this year.