Citi On ENDP Core Product Pricing & Trends

In its look at Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc.'s ENDP core product pricing and trends for the week ending 2-11-11, Citi reports on the following products: “Lidoderm: ~$970M Annual Run Rate Implied by 4-Wk Avg. TRx's vs. Our 2011E Sales of ~$800M (+2%),” Citi writes. “4Q10 growth was +1% vs. TRx growth +1%/+1%/+0%/+0% in 3Q10/2Q10/1Q10/4Q09. Lidoderm represented ~52% of ‘09 sales, down from 61%; Endo expects low single-digit '10 growth (vs. our +2% est.) supported by favorable patient demographics/new promo efforts. Lidoderm is priced at a WAC $6.71/day, following price increases (PI's) of 5% & 5.4% on 2/1/10 & 2/1/11, respectively. The 30 month stay on WPI's generic Lidoderm Paragraph-IV ANDA filing expires Aug.'12. “Opana ER/IR: ~$310M Annual Run Rate Implied by 4-Wk Avg TRx's vs. Our 2011E Sales of ~$340M (+18%). The long-acting opioid market was -4% in 4Q10. Total Opana NRx share was5.2%(+6bps). Opana ER/IR NRx's were 21,317 (+3% seq.)/1,665(+2%). Opana ER price range is $3.56 (5mg) to $22.80 (40mg) taken 2x/day. Endo took 9.9%&5% ER PI's on 2/1/10&2/1/11. Opana IR price was raised 9.9% to $11.88/$21.56 for 5mg/10mg taken 4x/day. On 1/7/11, ENDP received a CR letter for crush-resistant Opana ER requesting additional non-clinical data (mid-11 response targeted), with FDA decision byYE11 (assumes6mo.review). Endo assumes Opana IR generics in 2H10. Actavis is expected to launch generic Opana ER 7.5mg/15mg on 7/15/11;IPXL expects to launch other strengths 1/1/13. “Frova: ~$40M Annual Run Rate Implied by 4-Wk Avg TRx's vs. Our 2011E Sales of ~$60M (-4%). NRx/TRx for the week were 2,788(+1%)/6,045(-1%). Frova NRx/TRx share has been relatively stable at 2.4%(-3bps)/2.4% (+-5bps). Since the genericization of Imitrex in Nov‘08, Frova has lost ~80bp of TRx share. PFE's Greenstone generic division priced generic Imitrex (sumatriptan) at a WAC of $1.29/$1.23 for 25mg/50&100mg, compared to Frova (2.5mg) at $25.41. Endo took +9.9%&+9.9% Frova PI's on 2/1/10&2/1/11. Endo's partner Vernalis receives no royalties (paid from COGS) until annual Frova sales are >$85M.” Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc. closed Friday at $34.49.