Citi On PFE Product Trends Week Ended 2/11

In its look at Pfizer, Inc.'s PFE product trends for the week ending 2-11-11, Citi reports on the following: “Lipitor NRx/TRx Share Was 20.9% (+2bps)/21.1% (-5bps),” Citi writes. “Lipitor NRx's/TRx's were 395,147 (-2% seq)/1,149,627 (-4%), rolling 4wk/12wk NRx's were down - 9%/-8%; TRxs -5%/-8%. Lipitor YoY TRx's have declined -6% YTD. PFE took 12% & 5% price increases (PI's) on 1/1/11 & 7/1/10 across Lipitor10/20/40/80mg strengths. Lipitor 10mg is priced at wholesaler acquisition cost (WAC) of $3.33/day, a 43% discount to flat priced 20/40/80mg tabs at $4.76/day. “Lyrica 4-Wk Avg. TRx's Imply $1.6B US Annual Run Rate vs. Our 2011E Sales of ~$1.6B. NRx's/TRx's of 107,527 (-1% seq)/211,284 (-2%), with rolling 4wk/12wk NRx YoY growth of -3%/-3% & TRx of -0%/-1%. PFE took 9% & 5% PIs on 1/1/11& 7/1/10, with Lyrica 25mg-300mg flat priced at $6.37/day (assuming 2.5 caps/day) vs. flat priced 2x/day Savella 12.5/25/50/100mg at $3.72/day & 1x/day Cymbalta 30/60mg at $4.61/day. Competition: Lyrica received a CR letter for GAD maintenance on 12/23/09; adjunct GAD sNDA was withdrawn. “Chantix 4-Wk Avg. TRx's Imply ~$450M US Run Rate vs. Our 2011E Sales of $425M. Weekly NRx's/TRx's 52,451 (+5%)/65,313 (+4%). Rolling 4wk/12wk NRx YoY change of -16%/-16% & TRx of -15%/-15%. On 7/1/09, the FDA added a Black Box label Warning due to the risk of suicidality. Pricing: Chantix 0.5/1mg are priced at $4.84/day following 9% & 5% PI's on 1/1/11 & 7/1/10. “PFE & Ranbaxy Launched Generic Aricept at >50% Discount (~$3.95/day). Generics accounted for 90% of total Aricept TRx's, split 65%/35% between PFE (Greenstone)/Ranbaxy. Branded Aricept NRx's/TRx's were 8,327 (-4%)/ 25,310 (- 8%) with Aricept 23mg accounting for 37%/27%. Branded Aricept 5/10/23mg tabs are flat-priced at $7.94/day after a 10% PI in Nov. ‘10. We model US branded Aricept sales of $190M (-90%) in 2011E.” Pfizer closed Friday at $19.19.