Citi On BMY Product Trends For The Week Ending 2/11

In its look at Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY product trends for the week ending 2-11-11, Citi reports the following. “Onglyza: ~$270M Annual Run Rate Implied by 4-Wk Avg TRx's vs. Our 2011E US Sales of $190M,” Citi writes. “Onglyza posted weekly NRx/TRx of 12,469 (+5%)/30,443 (+1%), with DPP-IV market share of 11.3% (+65bps seq)/10.2% (+47bps seq). BMY took a 7.5% price increase (PI) on Onglyza in March 2010, which is flat priced at a WAC of $6.05/day, a 3% discount to MRK's Januvia/Janumet. BMY launched 1x/day Kombiglyze XR (saxagliptin +MET) at $6.05/day vs. Janumet 2x/day at $6.24/day. “Abilify: $4.0B Annual Run Rate Implied by 4-Week Average TRx's vs. Our 2011E US Sales of $3.6B (+7%). Abilify posted weekly NRx/TRx of 102,078 (+1%)/184,820 (-0%), TRx share of 15.1% (-22bp) of antipsychotic market. Rolling 4 week/12 week NRx growth rates were +2%/+1%, and TRx growth rates were +5%/+4%. 2mg/5mg/10mg/15mg tabs are flat priced at $16.02/day; 20/30mg tablets are flat priced at $22.65/day. VNDA/NVS's Fanapt launched 1/11/10 and is priced at a WAC $19.04/day; MRK's Saphris is priced at $17.46/day after a 6.9% PI in August 2010. “Plavix: $5.7B Annual Run Rate Implied by 4-Wk Average TRx's vs. Our 2011E US Sales of $6.5B (+6%). Plavix weekly NRx/TRx was 224,942 (-5% seq)/706,273 (-7%). Rolling 4wk/12wk NRx growth rates were -2%/-2% & TRx rates were +3%/- 0%. Plavix is priced at $6.02/day after 9%, 4.9%, & 12% PI's in 2/10, 9/10 & 2/11. “Sprycel: ~$350M Annual Run Rate Implied by 4-Wk Avg. TRx's vs. Our 2011E US Sales of $254M (+35%). Sprycel posted weekly NRx/TRx of 416 (-3%)/1,054 (+12%). Rolling 4wk/12wk NRx growth rates were +58%/+34% & TRx rates were +26%/+23%. Sprycel 50/70/100mg tabs are priced at $260.10/day; 20mg at $130.05 after 9.9% & 3% PI's on 1 October 2010 & February 2011, respectively. Sprycel received 1st-line chronic myeloid leukemia approval on 28 October.” Bristol-Myers Squibb closed Friday at $25.49.