Cowen Cuts Activision Estimates But Remains Bullish

After a lost year in 2016, Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI shareholders are hoping that the stock can level up in 2017. Activision shares dropped roughly 4 percent in 2016 during a strong year for the market, but Cowen analyst Doug Creutz is optimistic that the stock will make up for some lost ground in the coming year.

In the near term, Activision investors will need a bit more patience. Creutz has cut Cowen’s fiscal 2017 EPS estimate for Activision to only $1.82, the lowest estimate on Wall Street. However, he sees a number of bullish catalysts ahead in fiscal 2018:

1. “Call of Duty Black Ops.”
2. Growth in “Call of Duty” DLC/MTX revenue.
3. A full year of King advertising.
4. A “World of Warcraft” expansion.
5. Something new from Blizzard.
6. Ramping up of the eSports business.

“While the stock is likely to confront an earnings overhang in the immediate term, we think a better outlook for FY18 will eventually get shares moving higher again,” Creutz explained.

Despite the relatively weak fiscal 2017 EPS outlook, Cowen expects earnings to bounce back to at least $2.33 in fiscal 2018, an estimate that Creutz calls “very conservative.”

Cowen maintains an Outperform rating and a $51 price target for Activision stock.