Morgan Keegan Updates Its Earnings Estimates On Brookdale Senior Living After Recent 10-K Filing

Morgan Keegan has adjusted its earnings model for Brookdale Senior Living BKD to incorporate the company's Form 10-K filed yesterday. Brookdale's SEC filings contain segment revenue and operating income data that Morgan Keegan uses as inputs to its bottoms-up earnings model. Morgan Keegan is maintaining its 2011 cash from facility operations estimate of $2.38 and a $30 price target. Morgan Keegan is lowering its 2012 CFFO estimate from $2.66 to $2.59. This is due solely to the assumption that the company refinances $650 million of low-cost debt during the fourth quarter of this year. As the price target assumes that Brookdale's $1.3 billion of debt maturing in 2011 and 2012 is refinanced at 6%, this adjustment does not affect the PT or rating. Morgan Keegan's estimates reflect measured growth assumptions in 2011. Stronger occupancy growth or accretive acquisitions are both distinct possibilities, according to Morgan Keegan. It could drive faster CFFO growth than the 19% projected. Morgan Keegan has a $30 PT and Outperform rating on BKD BKD closed Monday at $26.89