Chipotle Cites Avocado Pricing Pressure In Q4; Unlikely That's Going Away Anytime Soon

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG reported its Q4 2016 results in-line with the company’s pre-announcement and the consensus, with same-store sales of -4.8 percent and EPS of $0.55.

Stephens’ Will Slabaugh maintained an Underweight rating on the company, with a price target of $325.

Q4 Results

Chipotle Mexican Grill’s EPS declined 75 percent year on year during Q4, driven by sales deleveraging, increased marketing spend, structural cost changes and possible higher produce prices.

“Although the comp improved as CMG lapped the food-safety scare, we remain concerned with heightened sales and profit recovery expectations in future quarters,” Slabaugh stated.

Guidance

As part of its result release, the company emphasized that its focus during FY2017 would remain on simplifying and improving restaurant operating, utilizing creative marketing to rebuild the brand and further rolling out its digital sales efforts.

“The release also noted that avocados and pre-diced tomatoes were the primary source of COGS pressure, which we do not expect to ease in the near term,” the analyst noted.

However, Chipotle did not include its previous EPS guidance of $10 as part of the release, while the same-store sales guidance was for high single digit growth in FY2017.