Apple Momentum Will Continue; BlueFin Raises New Model Estimates

“Our most recent Apple Inc. AAPL supply chain update over the first full weekend in March indicates no changes to the 50M March quarter build forecast,” said BlueFin’s John Donovan, in a note.

Preparing For iPhone 8/X

The analyst mentioned that the supply chain preparing itself for the anticipated super cycle, as well as the “complexities of the iPhone 8/X.”

Donovan stated that “builds have been pulled in as much as 60 days earlier than in the past and are increasing modestly at each and every update.”

However, the analyst also pointed out that mix changes have continued ahead of historic trends for Apple, especially in the June quarter, with the current checks suggesting an additional 33 percent increase in next generation iPhone builds in the June quarter, from 9 million to 12 million, following the 300 percent increase in iPhone 8/X builds in February.

Initial checks also suggest that iPHone8/X would constitute 57–59 percent of the mix, giving a healthy boost to the ASPs (average selling prices).

Related Link: Apple Could Rise 20% Over The Next Year

Long-Term Positive

In addition, with the most recent expectations for Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (ADR) TSM A11 processor production indicating ramping in April, ahead of the A10 ramp in 2016, Donovan pointed out that the supply base was “getting very aggressive future projections as much as 8–10 percent higher in 2018 and 2019.”

The analyst also noted that near-term concerns had abated to a large extent, while expressing a positive stance on Apple’s long-term prospects, with “potential for sustained growth over the next several years.”