.@CowenResearch has an 80-page report on retailers, saying 2,000 stores may need to close -- in its universe, alone. pic.twitter.com/7ZSDaJrmGj
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) April 6, 2017
20+ Percent Closure In The Cards
Cowen Research based its deduction on its proprietary top-down metropolitan statistical area analysis combined with a bottom-up point of view. At J C Penney Company Inc JCP and Macy's Inc M, the firm expects closures of 20 percent or greater.
Mall Retailers To Shrink
However, off-mall department stores such as Kohl's Corporation KSS may require less trimming. According to the firm, among malls, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF, Gap Inc GPS, with its Gap and Banana Republic stores, and Ascena Retail Group Inc ASNA, with its Justice, Lane Bryant, Ann Taylor and LOFT, will need to significantly reduce their store counts.
Deep Value Retailers To Shine
On the other hand, Cowen Research said it sees strong unit growth for deep-value retailers such as TJX Companies Inc TJX and Ross Stores, Inc. ROST, strong> Burlington Stores Inc BURL, sporting goods consolidator Dicks Sporting Goods Inc DKS and beauty retailer Ulta Beauty Inc ULTA.
Quantifying The Unit Growth Expectations
- TJX Companies: 50–60 percent.
- Ross Stores: 50–60 percent.
- Burlington Stores: 70 percent+.
- Dicks Sporting: 40–50 percent.
- Ulta Beauty: 60 percent.
Friday's Jobs Figures
On Friday, it was revealed that March's jobs figures came in almost 50 percent below expectations, with 180,000 job creations expected versus only 98,000 actually created.
Of significant note, CNBC reported, "Retail jobs fell by 30,000."
"It was not a particularly good number, that's for sure," TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan commented. "[B]ut I think one of the things we have to do in fairness is take out the retail number [...] Let's face it, retail stores are trying to figure out what is the proper balance between brick-and-mortar and online sales. If you do take that number out, it's not quite as bad a jobs report."
Quintanilla tweeted out his own response, emphasizing the number of retail jobs lost within the context of what could be an emerging trend.
Two months in a row of 30 THOUSAND retail jobs lost. And no sign that will let up.pic.twitter.com/hXe3GzLRov
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) April 7, 2017
Related Links:
The Amount Of Retail Bankruptcies This Year Is Reaching A Scary Number
Burlington's Superior Growth Profile Should Help The Stock Outperform
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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