Goldman Sachs Maintains $57 PT On COH

Goldman Sachs is maintaining its $57 PT on shares of Coach, Inc. COH. “Tiffany & Co. TIF reported 4Q results, and framed the expected near-term impact to their sales and earnings from events in Japan,” Goldman Sachs writes. “For 1Q, TIF expects Japan sales to decline mid-teens (vs. 4Q trend +11%) and EPS to be impacted by approximately $0.05, or 8%. “We see TIF's comments as a relatively good proxy for COH's near-term financial impact from the events in Japan, as: (1) “Both TIF and COH generate almost 20% of total sales in Japan. (2) “Our analysis of their store bases by province shows similar regional exposures within the country. (3) “By store type both are >70% shop-in-shops with a more variable expense structure than owned stores. (4) “Sales trends in the region over the last several years suggest TIF is as/more discretionary than COH. “Using TIF's comments as a guide, we lower our COH EPS for 4Q2011 (Apr-June) by 9% assuming a low/mid-teens Japan sales decline. As a result, we also lower our FY2011 EPS by 2% to $2.81 from $2.88. We maintain our 2012- 2013 estimates. Coach closed Monday at $51.45.