Shares of Ford Motor Company F are currently trading lower on the session by 1.61%, trading at $14.35. After a large run up throughout 2010, shares jumped higher into 2011 only to experience a heavy wave of selling. This begs the question, “Where do shares go from here?”
Bulls: Bull will note that shares are currently testing and consolidating around the 200-day moving average. If Ford were to hold this level, a rally from here would be well received. A move toward the company's recent 52-week high would certainly not be out of the question.
Bulls will also note that dramatically improving fundamental story for the company, including reduced debt and increasing sales. A bull could consider buying the June 2011 $15/14 risk reversal for a net credit of $0.09. This trade is similar to holding shares, but the initial cash outlay if far, far less.
Bears: Bears will note the very, very high volume sell off that occurred near the end of January, saying that this was a blow-off top. The large gap down that is now in place will prove to be a significant resistance level for some time.
Bear will also note that both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages are down-sloping, with sellers coming in ready and often near the 20-day. This is an indication that the short to medium-term trend is lower.
A bear could consider buying the June 2011 $14/11 put spread for a net debit of $0.70. The max gain of $2.30 (+329%) is taken when shares trade 23.3% lower.
Ford Motor Company is a producer of cars and trucks. Ford and its subsidiaries also engage in other businesses, including financing vehicles. It operates under two segments: Automotive and Financial Services.
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