Personal Income and Outlays: February

Eh, headline or internals? Pick one.

Personal income increased $38.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $36.0 billion, or 0.3 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.1 billion, or 0.7 percent. In January, personal income increased $147.4 billion, or 1.2 percent, DPI increased $92.0 billion, or 0.8 percent, and PCE increased $29.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, based on revised estimates.

Remember that the January number was dramatically boosted by the tax changes for FICA. That sounds good except that it flows directly to the deficit - that is, we're simply kiting checks. Now that one-timer has gone through the system. How's it working out for consumers when one looks at actual purchasing power?

Real disposable income decreased 0.1 percent in February, in contrast to an increase of 0.5 percent in January. Real PCE increased 0.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of less than 0.1 percent.

The one-timer in January masked what was otherwise an 0.3% decrease. Now it's gone. The money-printing simply shifted where the negative number showed up - in this case, on the government balance sheet. But again, that was a one-time deal and now the impact has been taken, and in February we got to see the impact of........ Read the full analysis here.