Barry Knapp

Barry Knapp

Benzinga Contributor

About
About Ironsides Macroeconomics, LLC We are an independent provider of macroeconomic and public policy strategy for institutional and sophisticated individual investors, RIAs, wealth managers, banks and corporations. Integral to our approach is ...
Itching To Ease
Itching to Ease & Two Policy Puts (BN) POWELL: STRONG HIRING BY ITSELF NOT A REASON TO DELAY RATE CUTS
Stag Week
Stag Week
Quadrilemma Back On Track
In last week’s note, Labor Market Conundrums, we discussed questions raised by the last couple of employment reports about labor market demand, supply and where the two shall meet, wage growth.
Labor Market Conundrums
Monetary Policy Report To Congress
Is This Time Different?
Tech Boom Bond Bust
Expectations Convergence
The January Effect
The Wrong Price
Thematic Investing
Confidence Men (Committee)
More Confidence
The Year In Review: 5% Or Bust
In the final of our three outlook notes we are going to review 2023 with an eye on the future. Rather than getting bogged down with details, we are going to discuss our differentiated perspectives on economic output, inflation, policy, equities, fixed income and other asset prices.
2024 Outlook: Put, Pause, Pivot
2024 Outlook Key Forecasts Inflation: Core disinflation but only to the top of the FOMC’s 3%-2% comfort zone Unemployment: Headed well above 4%, likely to be the trigger for the coming Fed pivot Growth: Consumption and investment are slowing, but unlikely to go significantly negative
Growth Scare Ahead
Growth Scare Ahead “Consequently, if consumption and nonresidential investment holds up, with the worst of the residential investment and inventory contraction complete, and the government outlays exceeding receipts by 6% of GDP, a recession of any consequence is a low probability outcome.”
Necessary And Sufficient
Data Dependent Risk-On Rally
There's A New Sheriff In Town
Fiscal Dominance
Modern Industrial Policy
Valuation Comeuppance
The Cure For Restrictive Forward Guidance
Make no mistake, the FOMC pivoted last week from the September meeting’s ‘hawkish hold’ due to the second wave of the supply-driven bear steepening of the Treasury curve and associated damage to bank capital. Even the most hawkish FOMC participants (Bowman, Waller, Logan) softened their stance on additional hikes.
Productivity Boom Or Policy Bust
Exacerbating Excess Treasury Supply
Testing The Fiscal Limit
Eye Of The Storm
Proceeding Recklessly
The Forward Guidance Trap
Banks Selling What They Can
Sell What You Can
Tightening Financial Conditions
Disorderly Disinversion