Carl Paraskevas

Carl Paraskevas

Benzinga Contributor

About
Carl Paraskevas has over twenty years’ experience in finance and banking, primarily in research related roles at several institutions. Prior to joining Varianse in 2021, he was an Emerging Markets FX trader and Senior Markets Economist at Lloyds Bank...
EUR/USD Barely Clinging Above 1.04
June didn’t work out to be a great month for EUR/USD. At the time of writing, the single currency looked on course to end the month down by 2.62% against the US dollar. May’s gains in hindsight look more like a cadaveric spasm than a serious promise of retracement or reversal of EUR/USD’s monumental fall this year.
EUR/SEK: Looking For More From The Riksbank
What can the Riksbank do to really shake things up for EUR/SEK? It could raise interest rates by less than 50 bps on Thursday, which would likely see EUR/SEK rise dramatically, but that seems unlikely. All 16 economists recently polled by Reuters expect the Swedish central bank to raise interest rates by 50 bps and interest rate markets are fully pricing in just such a move.
EUR/GBP Testing The 0.86 Ceiling
Two months ago, EUR/GBP looked destined for the junk heap. The outbreak of war in Ukraine and a then relatively dovish European Central Bank in comparison to the Bank of England had pushed the pair temporarily beyond the 0.8310 precipice more than once. A downtrend at that time seemed all but inevitable. Remarkably, those dark times proved very short lived.
GPB Looks Cheap - But For Good Reason
I’m tempted to look at a higher time frame chart of GBP/USD and say it looks cheap. Whether the pound has fallen due to the flash crash or COVID-19 concerns, buyers have always been quick to snap up GBP/USD anywhere between 1.24 and 1.16 levels. That might ultimately hold out to be true, but I’m not completely convinced that history will repeat itself.
EUR/USD flounders post Fed
EUR/USD managed to make a gain in May, after four consecutive months of declines, but thus far June has proven to be a bad month in terms of performance. After opening at 1.07322, the pair hit a low of 1.03593, to recently trade near 1.0452.
ECB leaves EUR/USD Traders Disappointed
Thursday’s ECB meeting ultimately left EUR/USD trading lower as traders questioned the near-term path for euro area rates. Granted, policymakers were crystal clear of a 25-bps interest rate hike in July, but they failed to specify the size of the hike indicated for September.
AUD/USD: keep your eyes peeled on 0.72664
AUD/USD has had a pretty good run since mid-May. The pair has climbed from a low of 0.68290 on 12 May 2022, breezing past the 2 May swing low of 0.70300 along the way, to reach a high of 0.72039 on 31 May 2022. Retracements on the way up, if any, have been too shallow for words.
Is EUR/USD Truly Out Of The Doghouse?
ECB talk of ending negative interest rates by Q3 with the possibility of positive rates in the not-to-distant future has got EUR/USD all fired up after what has been an abysmal year in terms of performance. The recent consolidation in short-dated US yields have also lent their support to the single currency, which surpassed the prior 5 May 1.06420 swing high on Monday.
GBP/USD: Don't Get Too Comfy With Recent Gains
GBP/USD look headed for its first weekly gain in four weeks moving into late Thursday trading. At the time of writing, the pair was trading up by 2.03% at 1.25089, supported by a broadly weaker US dollar. But a stronger pound this week didn’t relate to any major positive news about the UK economy. On the contrary, economic data from the UK has been a relative disappointment.
USD/JPY: Price Rally Stalled At 131.35
After a parabolic rise, USD/JPY registered its first weekly loss on Friday, providing traders the first opportunity to question whether this marks the end to the yen’s misfortune this year. Considering the prevailing uncertainty in financial markets, traders would be wise to measure up the opportunities in either direction, whilst cautiously sizing their positions.
DXY: US April CPI Keeps Inflation Fears Alive
Those who awaited US April CPI data hoping for a summary execution of the inflation narrative walked away from Wednesday’s release disappointed. But the reality is that inflation, although falling, is not doing so quite at the rate most were expecting. For the time being, traders will need to balance both of those factors as they trade the US dollar.
EUR/USD: Life After The May FOMC
The Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps and announced the start of QT on Wednesday as largely expected. Less anticipated were Fed Chair Powell’s comments discounting the near-term prospects of hikes greater than 50 bps at future meetings.
DXY: Knocking On Heavens Door
When it comes to foreign exchange markets, it has been the US dollar that has reigned supreme. Last week, the US dollar index (DXY) capped of its fourth consecutive week of gains, rising by 2.10%. In level terms, the pair quickly breached the March 2020 high of 102.992 and had a brief dalliance at 103.928, just above the January 2017 high of 103.820, before closing at 103.212.
EUR/USD: running out of chart
Things are bad when there is a need to look far into the past to draw support lines. EUR/USD is no exception in that regard. At the time of writing, EUR/USD had touched 1.05856 - its lowest level since April 2017.
USD/CAD: ripe for a squeeze?
USD/CAD, for all intents and purposes, has been stuck in a very big range between 11 May 2015 swing low of 1.19202 and 18 January swing high of 1.46903. Since the summer of 2020, however, price has consolidated into a right-angled ascending triangle pattern.
It Will Take More Than Words To Lift EUR/USD
Forex traders have suddenly become woke to the possibility of an end to ECB QE and interest rate hikes this year. As a result, EUR/USD, after two consecutive weeks of declines, has found a bit of support as traders return from their Easter break this week.
GBP/USD: Can The BoE Keep Pace With The Fed?
The Bank of England (BoE) already faced a tough decision at its next meeting on 5 May. How to quell inflation without scuppering the UK economy? GDP, employment, and inflation data this week just made the BoE’s job a whole lot harder. That’s potential bad news for GBP/USD, which rode high on a hawkish BoE at the turn of this year.
USD/Japan Yen: BoJ Intervention vs Godzilla US yields
USD/JPY soared to new heights on Monday as the Bank of Japan pledged overnight to keep interest lows against the backdrop of rising US bond yields. The latest swing higher put USD/JPY within a whisker of breaking through the June 2015 high of 125.85.
Don't Get Too Bullish On The DXY!
Those who’ve been long the US dollar index (DXY) since the middle of last year have done well for themselves. The DXY has gained c. 12% from its January 2021 swing low of 89.21 to trade close to 99.75 at the time of writing. Making similar gains from current levels will undoubtedly prove more challenging.
EUR/USD Looks Increasingly Vulnerable
EUR/USD fell on Monday as fresh claims of Russian war crimes in the Ukraine led to increased speculation of more punitive sanctions against Russia. The news, combined with other developments over the weekend, dented hopes last week of a possible de-escalation in the war.