Articles written by Kevin Green - Benzinga

Oil Markets Unmoved By Iran's Attack On Israel: Analyzing The Underlying Factors For Geopolitical Risk Premiums

Over the last several days, market observers have been perplexed by the lack of a bullish reaction within oil markets after Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend. Let’s reset the backdrop on the oil markets to get a better perspective on the price action.

Gold Continues Its Bull Run, but Silver May Outperform in This Macro Environment

For those dedicated to watching the market daily, it comes as no surprise that gold has been outperforming over the last two weeks, advancing over 7% in the last 8 trading sessions and currently trading at all-time highs above the $2,300 level.

OPEC+ Continues Cuts And Russia's Surprise Move: Shifting Dynamics In Global Oil Markets

To no surprise, OPEC+ extended its voluntary cut of 2.2 million barrels per day through the end of Q2 to shore up prices after weak global demand and uncertainty around China's reopening efforts.

Brazil And Argentina Are Bailing Out The Fed On The Ag Front: Make Sure To Thank A Farmer

Even before the planting season officially kicks off, U.S. farmers and ranchers are already facing an uphill battle on many fronts. Before glossing over this piece, since it's not as appealing as discussing A.I.

The Dynamics Have Shifted In Energy Markets As Inventory Levels And Geopolitical Environment Pressures Margins

Last week, the oil market and its byproducts experienced a sell-off across the board due to several factors, ranging from geopolitical to fundamental industry data. Traditionally, after a significant run-up of 8.2%, a pullback wouldn't be surprising. However, last week's move of -7.44%, especially in trade flow activity, is somewhat concerning for oil bulls.

Oil Traders Continue To Fade Geopolitical Risk But Technicals Reflecting A Potential Short-Term Bounce

The tension in the Red Sea continues to put pressure on shipping routes, which will ultimately be felt in the coming weeks. Over the weekend, a Maersk shipping vessel was attacked just days after the company resumed Red Sea operations. The U.S.

U.S. Crude Oil Producers May Have Reached Peak Production Rates. Further Downside Pressure Will Be Demand Driven

Historic Low In Producer Short Positioning In Crude Oil: A Signal Of A Potential Major Shift In The Global Oil Market

The latest Commitment of Traders report (COT) raises questions about the future of the energy complex. Producer short positioning has hit its lowest level since August 2015, an indication that weakness in the oil market may not be a short-term phenomenon, but rather it could usher in a new dynamic within the global economy.

A Comprehensive Look At The Challenges In Refilling America's Emergency Oil Supply

With a 20% retreat in oil prices from year-to-date highs, traders and market observers continue to speculate about the Department of Energy's (DOE) plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Although efforts have started, the scale is relatively small compared to the total replenishment required.

Winter's Wild Card: How Weather And Politics Could Fuel Unexpected LNG Market Volatility

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) has emerged as a central player in the energy market, particularly since the onset of the Ukraine/Russia conflict. As Russian natural gas supplies were disrupted due to the conflict, the United States stepped into a leading role in global LNG supply, a position expected to influence trade for years.

A Market Primed For Movement: Managed Money Positioning And The Potential For A Copper Short Squeeze

Equities have been under pressure as interest rates continue to rise, reaching elevated levels. Assets across every segment of the market have faced downward pressure, from equities to treasuries, and from oil to both precious and industrial metals. However, a longer-term opportunity seems to be emerging within the metals space, particularly with copper.

The Silent Drivers: How Technicals and Fundamentals Might Indicate The Next Oil Surge

Fundamental data suggests that crude oil might be poised for a short-term rally, regardless of escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Last week provided some promising data from both a market positioning and supply standpoint — two dynamics that rarely correlate. However, there's always a catch.

The VIX Seasonality Effect: From Mid-Year Dips To Year-End Rips The Technicals Suggest A Potential Rally

Volatility surged almost precisely on cue this year. From mid-July to the first week of October, the S&P 500 dipped over 8% from recent peaks. Traditionally, this week marks the final stretch before we transition into the holiday season. However, we still anticipate key data points that could introduce market turbulence, particularly this week’s PPI and CPI reports.

Rising Tensions, Rising Oil: How Middle East Tensions Can Redefine Energy Markets

First and foremost, my heart goes out to everyone affected by the conflict that erupted over the weekend. As battles continue in Israel, the energy market has taken center stage among traders. Geopolitical events are challenging to navigate due to their fluid nature and unpredictability. Here's what you should note about the oil market:

The Intricate Dance Of Crude Oil And Treasury Yields: A Deep Look At Market Correlations

Over the past five trading sessions, crude oil has gained significant attention from traders and investors. Crude oil prices have plummeted over 12% since briefly touching the $95.03 mark. I've delved into the fundamental landscape for this pullback: Producers are lessening their short positions, signaling decelerating demand in the marketplace.

Is the Equity Market On Thin Ice? VIX Term Structure Sheds Light On Looming Risks

As the market grapples with potential near-term bullish drivers, one key indicator of downside pressure has awakened after a prolonged pause. The CBOE Volatility Index, often referred to as the "fear index", gauges the anticipated volatility of the S&P 500 index over the ensuing 30 days.

From Producers To Traders: Dissecting The Complex Dynamics Of Today's Crude Oil Market As Prices Test $90

Crude oil has captured the attention of investors and traders over the last month due to supply constraints resulting from OPEC+ pressure. Additionally, domestic rig counts have driven crude oil to reach over $90. However, the prevailing question is its ability to maintain these current levels or even continue to some analysts' targets of over $100 a barrel in the not-so-distant future.

The Recent Surge In Heating Oil Prices: A Precursor To Looming Inflationary Pressures

As heating oil prices continues to rise, propelled by diminishing crude oil stockpiles, a shift in refining priorities toward gasoline, and severe weather events, the real focus is its ability to forecast future inflation metrics.

Winter Is Coming: The Rise Of Liquefied Natural Gas In The Energy Market – Not Everyone Will Be A Winner

In recent weeks, the energy sector has found itself squarely in the limelight, fueled by fluctuations in oil prices and a resurgent interest in heating oil. As we transition into the cooler seasons, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is poised to seize a substantial portion of this spotlight.

Regional Banks: Navigating A Goldilocks Scenario Amid Market & Geopolitical Challenges

Regional banks took a hit earlier this year due to the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle, several executives implementing poor risk management strategies, and attractive of money market rates.