Articles written by Joe Benjamin - Benzinga

A Market View From Happy Hour - Don't Blink

As we turn the corner into the second half of the year, it appears as though the market may be coming around to understanding the impacts that a strong jobs report will have on inflation. For months, Happy Hour has been pounding the table on higher rates and no cuts in 2023 because of how sticky core inflation is due in part to the strength of the job market.

A Market View From Happy Hour - Optimistic Expectations

A big misconception about the FED's rate raising path is that just because we've achieved their terminal rate of 5.1% does not mean that they won't continue to raise rates later in order to beat inflation. The current expectation of the FED during the FOMC meeting next week is that rates will stay the same and that the FED is going to "pause" rate changes.

A Market View From Happy Hour - Raise Those Stops

If you've been taking part in this wild AI rally, then you're likely doing very well and believe there's more upside to come, or you would hope. This market can continue to extend well into being overbought as it did in early February 2023 before reversing and making new 2023 lows in the process.

A Market View From Happy Hour - Credit Tightening Coming By Fall

Those that remember the 2007 - 2009 Great Recession brought on by high risk mortgage lending may remember that two of the biggest investment banks, Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros., collapsed in similar fashion roughly 6 months apart.

It's All About Jobs

We live in a nation that has weathered many storms and the current one forming on the horizon will also get a catchy name before it makes an impact. With the FED having received PCE figures last week, the next report up for their assessment is the May Jobs Report coming this Friday at 8:30 AM EST.

A Market View From Happy Hour - Beyond The Debt Limit Crisis

There are two camps of thought as to what is going to happen with the standoff over raising the debt limit: we either move beyond this crisis, be it with a bipartisan effort or Article 14 exercise, or the US enters uncharted waters as it runs out of money to pay its bills.

A Market View From Happy Hour - Sell The News On A Debt Limit Deal

If history is any indicator, the idea that the broader market will accelerate to new highs on a debt limit deal is not well met. The last time we were here with such a politically manufactured crisis in 2011, the market sold off over 18% once a deal was reached. It took about 7 months to retake those previous highs.