The price of bitcoin is sharply lower today, as are the prices of all top altcoins, after the bellwether cryptocurrency’s price pulled back to as low as $91,564.
Bitcoin faced rejection after several runs at breaking through the $100,000 level. Failure made market participants sitting on sizeable unrealized profits decide to start selling.
There was a sense that, for now, $100k was a bridge too far after a relentless run-up since Trump won the election.
Then came the president-elect's policy pronouncements on tariffs via a Truth Social post to set the cat among the pigeons, stirring up volatility and risk aversion. The market needs a trade war like a hole in the head but Trump seems determined to swing his weapon of choice to bring global economic competitors into line.
Stock futures fell on the news that Trump, despite the appointment of the pro-crypto and Wall Street-friendly hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, was serious about imposing punitive tariffs. Wall Street is trying to gauge how serious Trump is – the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are all recovering to trade in the green.
Bitcoin is currently priced at $92,479.
Bitcoin correction happened at the end of November in 2020, at the psychological level of the previous all-time high. Then…
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) November 25, 2024
Now we're correcting at the $100K level, also a psychologically significant price level.
no big deal…pic.twitter.com/BYgqEjUBo9
Crypto market euphoria won't be stopped by a little market turbulence – the pullback will only make bitcoin stronger
The crypto market reacted to all of this as a good excuse to book some profits. Outflows from bitcoin ETFs on Monday November 25 was -3,310 BTC ($309 million at the current bitcoin price), after four days of declining prices for the most valuable cryptocurrency.
But pullbacks are the market’s way of removing some froth before the ascent resumes. This bull market isn’t going anywhere.
Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO at Mercuryo, a crypto-centric payment infrastructure platform, sees the correction as a prelude to a renewed attack on $100k for bitcoin.
"A pullback in the bitcoin price to the $91,000 mark is unlikely to quell market euphoria. In fact, we may even see FOMO reach new heights as we stand on the eve of the festive season.
"The feel-good mood following the election of Republican Donald Trump as US president continues as the monumental milestone of $100,000 remains clearly in sight."
We agree. For sure, bitcoin was getting into overheated territory, as shown by the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio (see the chart below), which measures the ratio between the current price of bitcoin and the averaged price of every acquired bitcoin. It is a rough view of oversold and undersold conditions in the market.
Here's all the reasons why bitcoin and crypto bull market is here to stay a while longer – it's all in the charts
Last week, the MVRV ratio spiked, indicating increased profitability among BTC holders. This could suggest a greater willingness to sell to realize some profits. That reading has started to play out this week.
Note: the charts featured below are all from Glassnode
However, a look at BTC compared to other store-of-value commodities, chiefly gold (XUG) but also silver (XAG), shows impressive outperformance.
Although not a watertight assumption, it does suggest that a straight swap may be taking place, with precious metal holders selling and moving into BTC. That would be a signal of bitcoin’s continuing strength.
Meanwhile, the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric can be used to measure the paper profits of long-term holders, where most of the supply is held. According to Glassnode, the NUPL reading is still below the euphoria-greed threshold, implying that the bull market has much further to run.
Next up is capital inflows. They provide the most solid evidence that the market’s bullish dynamics will be sustained.
The Glassnode chart below shows aggregate inflows in the 30 days to November 20 totalling $62.9 billion, of which BTC and ETH accounted for $53 billion of the total.
Capital inflows continued to accelerate in subsequent days – as of Monday November 25, capital inflows over the prior 30-day period was $99.5 billion.
In terms of the animal spirits of the market, market participants are gearing up to speculate even more so than we have seen already, as judged by stablecoin balances on exchanges.
The chart below shows the stablecoin exchange balance at $9.7 billion on November 20. Five days later on the 25th it had accelerated to 12.7 billion.
Trump is watching the crypto market dip and may now be even more inclined to install a heavily pro-crypto SEC chairman
Trump will have noticed the fall in the price of bitcoin because he is a player now. Along with his many other potential conflicts of interest, crypto looms large. That might worry some observers, but it doesn't worry The Don.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman and the US trade representative are two of the picks still to be made in the financial realm. We think the moderate correction in the bitcoin price makes it even more likely that the president-elect will pick a strongly pro-crypto SEC chairman. You heard it here first.
The wealth Trump has tied up in crypto is no longer inconsequential. His sons are running World Liberty Financial, but we betcha that he spotted Justin Sun sinking $30 million into the project.
He (Trump) will want to see his WLFI token and the DeFi ecosystem it will power succeed. Expect Trump to drop some big hints about the SEC slot soon and watch Bitcoin power past $100,000. It might be his Thanksgiving Day surprise. WEN for BTC $1,000,000?
A head of steam on Capitol Hill for US Senator Lummis' BITCOIN Act and its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Ark Invest research associate David Puell writes in the latest newsletter from the active ETFs manager, that Senator Cynthia Lummis' BITCOIN Act (Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide Act) is gaining traction.
At the center of the BITCOIN Act is a plan to set up a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) – an initiative that, in words at least, Trump says he supports.
Puell draws attention to the fact that Pennsylvania has passed the Bitcoin Rights Bill, which seeks to set up an SBR at the state level, and that other states could follow.
The BITCOIN Act requires the Treasury to acquire 1 million bitcoin over a five-year period. To fund the purchases Lummis proposes that the Treasury sells some of its gold.
There are doubts about how an SBR would work, and whether it would ultimately undermine the dollar if taken to its logical conclusion. Nevertheless, any chatter in positive tones about such a development coming out of Mar-a-Lago will be SpaceX booster for the bitcoin price.
Bitcoin has arrived on Wall Street – Microstrategy is a more popular trade than Tesla
Finally, the fold at Interactive Brokers have just released their table of the 25 most active stocks by client orders stocks on their platform for November 26 2024, and crypto stocks are everywhere:
Five crypto stocks are among the 25, three of which are in the top 10. It is astonishing that Microstrategy (MSTR) is seeing more trades than Tesla (TSLA).
Interactive Brokers describes the situation well, with an interesting point about the impact of the start of options trading on bitcoin ETFs, with IBIT (BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust) moving up the table:
Indeed, it is a bit of a shock to see TSLA surpassed by MSTR as well. But when we see #2 MSTR followed by #5 MARA, #6 COIN, and even #23 CLSK, it is clear that crypto-related stocks are in the forefront of many of our customers' mindsets. Those names also demonstrate our customers' continual interest in leveraged plays on an underlying theme.
Interactive Brokers
Investors have always recognized that commodity miners offer a leveraged play on their underlying commodity, with profits and losses accruing quickly as the commodity goes above and below their cost of production. In that vein, MARA and CLSK can be considered leveraged to crypto. With its reliance on crypto, COIN can be thought of similarly. And with its strategy of continually selling convertible bonds and using the proceeds to buy bitcoins, MSTR is essentially a leveraged crypto holding company. Thus #8 MSTU, a 2X ETF that tracks MSTR, layers leverage atop leverage.
Sure, we have a "vanilla" bitcoin ETF, #17 IBIT, on the list, but note the options activity that accompanies the stock trading. It is probably no coincidence that bitcoin ETFs only occasionally appeared around the bottom of the list before options were listed on these names, yet we see it closer to the middle of the table a few days after options arrived. We will be watching if options trading continues to drive interest in this and other bitcoin ETFs.
Learn to love the dip, BTC at $100,000 is coming sooner than you might think.
And one last thing – Pepe Unchained and some other meme coins for your portfolio
If you are looking to supplement your bitcoin with some meme coin action, you could consider Pepe Unchained. Its ICO, which ends in 16 days, has so far raised more than $53 million. It’s the biggest meme coin presale of the year.
Crypto All-Stars has raised more than $6 million, with just 23 days before its presale closes.
A fair launch coin that went straight to DEX is the new cat-themed meme coin Catslap. Apparently, they have a "major announcement" coming up in nine days, so this could be a stellar price mover.
Dubbed ‘The People's Meme Coin', Flockerz says it is the first meme coin to build in a vote-to-earn governance system, putting the token holders in charge. Might be worth a look but do your own research.
The post Why The Bitcoin Price Falling 8% In 4 Days Means We Could Break $100,000 Sooner Than You Think appeared first on Cryptonews.
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