Shares of the much-maligned semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) have jumped over 30% in the past week as of the Feb. 18 close. This is primarily due to rumors that Intel could sell off large parts of its business to two semiconductor behemoths. President Trump reportedly planted the seed for this idea. So, is the rise in Intel shares a sign that things could be turning around for this stock, or is it driven by hopeful optimism without staying power?

Below, I’ll detail the much-talked-about rumors involving Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), and Intel. I’ll also shed light on comments made by Vice President JD Vance that kicked off the rally.

Vance stated, "The Trump Administration will ensure that the most powerful AI systems are built in the U.S. with American-designed and manufactured chips.” This has large positive implications for Intel. Intel is essentially the only advanced-node chip manufacturer based in the United States. These are the types of chips needed for AI. TSMC and Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF) are building advanced manufacturing facilities in the U.S.; however, they remain foreign companies.

Shares kept rising in the days that followed. The Wall Street Journal reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Broadcom are both considering purchasing different parts of Intel’s business. Broadcom is “closely examining Intel’s chip-design and marketing business." It could make an offer for it, but only if another company overtakes Intel’s manufacturing arm. That is where TSMC could step in; however, the two firms are not working in concert.

First off, it's somewhat unclear what the Trump administration wants out of this deal. The consideration of such a deal by TSMC apparently came at the request of the administration. However, a White House official also said that “the president is unlikely to support a foreign entity operating Intel’s factories." It is hard to see how TSMC can make Intel competitive in AI without this happening. However, some type of “investor consortium” where TSMC invests significantly in Intel but doesn’t operate it could be an answer.

For Broadcom, one analyst noted Intel’s product line could be complementary and would make the firm a leader in CPUs. It also has a strong history of integrating other companies, as demonstrated by its hugely successful purchase of VMWare. Still, acquiring Intel’s product business would likely be by far the largest transaction in the company’s history. That would be tough for a firm with $69 billion in debt and only $9 billion in cash on its balance sheet.

Overall, this remains a fluid and highly uncertain situation in my view. The Trump administration clearly wants to prop up Intel, but this deal coming together seems unlikely. However, talks are early and it could lead to something more reasonable over time. Just as Intel shares rose on these rumors, they could fall if rumors that the deal won’t happen come through. At this point, I would tend not to get too excited about the possibility of Intel’s recent surge turning into substantially more than just that.